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Khabib Nurmagomedov v Conor McGregor Betting Tips

It is the fight MMA fans have been desperate to see for quite some time, and on October 6 it will become a reality when former two-weight champion Conor McGregor ends his UFC exile and challenges unbeaten lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov in the main event of UFC 229.

McGregor, of course, is returning to MMA action for the first time in almost two years. The Irish star enjoyed a rapid rise up the UFC ranks as he became the first fighter to hold titles in two different weight classes at the same time, but after adding the lightweight belt to his featherweight crown he put his MMA career on hold in order to challenge unbeaten boxing star Floyd Mayweather Jr. That bid to become the first man to beat Mayweather ended in failure, but as soon as that fight was over all of the talk was about when, or if, McGregor would resume his mixed martial arts career?

Any thoughts of a comeback this year were temporarily shelved when McGregor found himself in serious legal trouble following an incident that saw him and a group of associates attack a bus full of fighters – including Khabib – prior to UFC 223 Media Day, but in late July he avoided prison after pleading guilty to the charges brought against him and within a matter of weeks it was announced that he would be challenging the lightweight champion in the main event of UFC 229 on October 6. So will the Irishman’s UFC comeback end in glory, or will Khabib ruin his opponent’s big return?

This is an incredibly tough fight to call, but on the flip side I do not expect it to be close on the night. That probably sounds bizarre – how can I confidently predict a one-sided blow-out for a bout that really does feel like a 50-50 pick ‘em? That is easy – it is all down to styles. Whoever dictates where this fight takes place will be the winner.

McGregor’s boxing stand-up may not have impressed when he challenged Mayweather last year, but when it comes to his MMA striking game there is no better fighter on the planet. After dethroning featherweight champion Jose Aldo in just 13 seconds back in December 2015, McGregor declared “precision beats power, and timing beats speed”, but when it comes to the Irishman he has all of those in his locker. He has one-punch knockout power in that left hand and he has the speed and precision to land at will in the stand-up game. Khabib, quite frankly, is nowhere near McGregor’s level when it comes to striking and unless he has tightened up his sloppy stand-up, and sorted out a leaky defence, he is going to get beaten up and knocked out by the former champion.

But on the flip side, if Khabib can get the fight into his world, on the mat, then the challenger is in serious trouble. Wrestlers have long been considered the kryptonite for McGregor and there are also major question marks over the Irishman’s gas tank. Pardon the pun, but he is notorious for slowing down and gassing after a couple of rounds, and if Khabib can get in close, maul McGregor and get him to the ground, he is going to sap the challenger’s energy reserves second by second. It is this approach that has made the Russian so successful in his MMA career and if he can impose his will in this fight, it will be a long – and painful – night for the former champion.

So the question is, who imposes their will and who will leave Las Vegas as the undisputed UFC lightweight champion? Backing McGregor after a very lengthy absence from the Octagon is a very risky proposition, but this is a man who ended Aldo’s decade of featherweight dominance in just 13 seconds, having successfully predicted exactly what would happen, and he then stopped Alvarez to become the first man in UFC history to hold two titles at the same time. He has knocked out just about everyone who has stood in front of him in the Octagon and every fight starts standing, so I am going to back ‘The Notorious’ to capitalise on Khabib’s sloppy stand-up, knock him out and confirm his spot as the king of the 155lb ranks.

Expert Khabib Nurmagomedov v Conor McGregor Predictions

Former UFC welterweight & middleweight champion Georges St-Pierre on Submission Radio

“If I had to bet – if I had to put my house on it – I would have to choose Khabib over Conor. Khabib has never lost and Conor has lost before. He has a few losses and he lost on the ground – that’s where Khabib is good, that’s where Khabib is more competent. Khabib is sometimes a slow starter and he gets punched a lot, but once he’s got you in the clinch he’s very good. So, I believe the chance – the house – goes in Khabib’s favour.”

Current UFC light heavyweight & heavyweight champion Daniel Cormier on Complex.com...

“Conor is a sniper, he can hit you with power and from angles that you just don't expect, but I don't think anyone's beating Khabib. 26-0, no mistakes, undisputed, undefeated lightweight champion. I think the areas [where] Khabib are really good are areas where he can really expose Conor's weaknesses.”


UFC Hall of Famer and former WEC featherweight champion Urijah Faber on TMZ…

“I think the odds are in Conor’s favour because it starts standing every round, and unless Khabib can take him down over and over again right off the bat, the power’s going to be a little [too] much. ‘Mystic Mac’ has some good wins – he beat Chad Mendes and Jose Aldo, and those guys don’t get knocked out often."


SBG striking coach Owen Roddy on Ariel Helwani's MMA Show...

“Conor lands on the chin and puts him to sleep. I always give his opponent the benefit of the doubt because some people are tough and can take more shots than others, but it's only a matter of time. If Conor lands in the first, really, it could be done in the first. Once he lands on the chin, you'll all see it in Khabib's face. Once he lands, it will be lights out either immediately or shortly after.  I'm expecting a KO – most definitely. Whether it's in the first or the second I don’t know, but, I would predict that he's going to flatten him. It's not only the power – it's the accuracy, the timing, it's everything. Khabib has been hit by some powerful people and been rocked, they're powerful strikers but they're not as accurate as Conor. They don't have the timing, they don't have the speed. Conor has it all. It's a very, very tough task for anybody to come in there against Conor. I don't see him lasting. He's never fought a striker like Conor McGregor and if all those guys can land shots on him, Conor can land on him. 99% of the time, Conor sleeps people when he lands them. In the Al Iaquinta fight he kept it standing obviously because he felt there was no threat coming and he wanted to play around a little bit. He looked kind of amateurish when it comes to the striking but, then again, that's not what we're expecting from Khabib this time around. We're expecting the aggressive wrestler.”

Khabib Nurmagomedov v Conor McGregor Betting Odds

To Win Fight

Method Of Victory

Round Betting

Total Rounds

Will The Fight Go The Distance?

Khabib Nurmagomedov v Conor McGregor Tale Of The Tape

It is the fight fans have been clamouring for for the past couple of years, and October 6 they will get it when UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov defends his belt against former champion Conor McGregor.

McGregor became the biggest active star in combat sports as he stormed up the UFC rankings and made history by becoming the first man to hold titles in two different weight classes at the same time, but following his November 2016 win over Eddie Alvarez he stepped away from the world of MMA and crossed over into boxing for a super-fight with Floyd Mayweather Jr.

The Irishman’s absence from the sport resulted in the self-proclaimed ‘champ champ’ being stripped of his featherweight and lightweight titles, and earlier this year Nurmagomedov made himself the new number one in the 155lb division when he recorded a Unanimous Decision win over Al Iaquinta to win the vacant belt.

That was the Russian’s 10th straight victory inside the Octagon, but to make it 11-in-a-row he is going to have to pass the biggest test of his career so far. McGregor was the man who ended Jose Aldo’s lengthy reign over the featherweight division in a mere 13 seconds and his sensational striking game has resulted in seven of his nine UFC victories coming via KO/TKO.

So how do Nurmagomedov and McGregor stack up? Here is the Tale of the Tape for October 6…

Khabib Nurmagomedov v Conor McGregor Stats

Khabib Nurmagomedov
'The Eagle'
Russia
Conor McGregor
'The Notorious'
Ireland
26-0-0Record21-3-0
31%KO/TKO86%
31%Submission5%
38%Decision10%
70"Height69"
155lbsWeight155lbs
70"Reach74"
40"Leg Reach40"
4.34Strikes Landed Per Minute5.82
48.75%Striking Accuracy47.63%
5.44Takedown Average0.92
44.95%Takedown Accuracy62.5%
84.62%Takedowns Defended73.91%

Khabib Nurmagomedov's UFC Record (10-0-0)

DateEventOpponentResult
April 7. 2018UFC 223Al IaquintaWin - Unanimous Decision
December 30, 2017UFC 219Edson BarbozaWin - Unanimous Decision
November 12, 2016UFC 205Michael JohnsonWin - Submission Rd 3
April 16, 2016UFC Fight NightDarrell HorcherWin - TKO Rd 2
April 19, 2014UFC Fight NightRafael dos AnjosWin - Unanimous Decision
September 21, 2013UFC 165Pat HealyWin - Unanimous Decision
May 25, 2013UFC 160Abel TrujilloWin - Unanimous Decision
January 19, 2013UFC Fight NightThiago TavaresWin - KO Rd 1
July 7, 2012UFC 148Gleison TibauWin - Unanimous Decision
January 20, 2012UFC Fight NightKamal ShalorusWin - Submission Rd 3

Conor McGregor's UFC Record (9-1-0)

DateEventOpponentResult
November 12, 2016UFC 205Eddie AlvarezWin - TKO Rd 2
August 20, 2016UFC 202Nate DiazWin - Unanimous Decision
March 5, 2016UFC 196Nate DiazLost - Submission Rd 2
December 12, 2015UFC 194Jose AldoWin - KO Rd 1
July 11, 2015UFC 189Chad MendesWin - TKO Rd 2
January 28, 2015UC Fight NightDennis SiverWin - TKO Rd 2
September 27, 2014UFC 178Dustin PoirierWin - TKO Rd 1
July 19, 2014UFC Fight NightDiego BrandaoWin - TKO Rd 1
August 17, 2013UFC Fight NightMax HollowayWin - Unanimous Decision
April 6, 2013UFC Fight NightMarcus BrimageWin - TKO Rd 1

UFC FREE BETS & SIGN-UP OFFERS

The sign-up incentive has become a staple of the betting industry with bookmakers now offering new customers the chance to claim free bets, risk-free bets and more when they register for a new online account.

But what offers are available to you right now? Below is Bettingpro.com's favourite bookmaker welcome offers that you may be eligible to use on Khabib Nurmagomedov v Conor McGregor (terms & conditions apply)...

UFC BETTING TIPS GUIDE: HOW TO BET ON NURMAGOMEDOV v McGREGOR

Betting on mixed martial arts has never been so popular, with more and more bookmakers offering more and more markets for the fast-rising sport. But which markets should you be using to make a profit when betting on MMA? Here is our guide to the key markets for the huge October 6 lightweight title fight between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Conor McGregor…

Winner

This market could not be any simpler – you are betting on who will win the fight between Nurmagomedov and McGregor. It does not matter if the bout is won by decision, submission or knockout, as long as the fighter you back is victorious your bet will be a winner. The appeal of this market is solely dependent on how open the fight is, and because the bookmakers have found little between the two men this is a market that could produce a tidy profit in October.

Method Of Victory

Just like the ‘Winner’ market you are picking out who you think will have their hand raised at the end of the fight, but the odds are bigger in this market because you have to also select how the fighter will win the bout. And of course, in the world of MMA there are three options to choose from because fights can end via KO/TKO, submission or via decision. By having to select a method of victory you are immediately getting a bigger price for backing your chosen fighter. For example, Nurmagomedov was an 8/13 favourite for this fight with McGregor at the time of writing, but if you backed him to win by Decision you would get odds of 9/2. If you backed him to win via KO/TKO, you would get odds in the region of 11/5. Some bookmakers even offer an opportunity to back a fighter to win by KO/TKO or Submission, so there are plenty of options here and that means this tends to be a go-to market for our tipsters.

Total Rounds

The Total Rounds market gives you the chance to bet on how many rounds the fight will or will not last. So, for example, you would back Over 4.5 Total Rounds if you fancied the fight between Nurmagomedov and McGregor to go the full five rounds, but if you liked the chances of a fighter winning in the first two rounds you would back Under 2.5 Total Rounds – it would not matter if the fight lasted one round or two rounds, as long as it ended before the 12:30 mark in the fight your bet would be a winner.

Round Betting

One of the most popular ways to bet on combat sports is to bet on which round the fight will finish, and this market covers every single round in the fight. The odds can be quite lucrative too because you are pinpointing the ending of the bout down to just one round, so if you believe McGregor will record yet another first-round stoppage win you would get odds as big as 6/1. Alternatively, if you fancied Numagomedov to win in the penultimate round you could get a price as big as 14/1. If there is a market in which you can make a big profit, it is this one.

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