Italian Grand Prix Betting Tips & Predictions

Leigh Copson:

Lewis Hamilton made it five wins in seven races and extended his lead at the top of the Drivers’ Championship standings even further with a dominant victory in Belgium last weekend, but can he now make it three-in-a-row by winning this Sunday’s Italian Grand Prix?

Hamilton came into the 2020 as the bookmakers’ favourite to win it all once again and the first seven races of the season have done nothing but confirm what the bookies and all of us thought coming into the campaign – it was going to take some effort to prevent the Mercedes ace from romping to world title number seven.

The six-time world champion endured a nightmare start to the season, by his high standards, as he was forced to settle for fourth place in the delayed season opener, but since then he has been almost unstoppable with the only other blemish on his record coming when he finished second in the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix at Silverstone. That is the sort of blemish almost every other F1 driver would welcome and celebrate at this time!

But not Hamilton. He has established himself as the clear number one driver in the sport, aided by the number one car, and he has to be considered the man to back for the victory on Sunday. Hamilton was upstaged by Charles Leclerc in 2019 Italian Grand Prix, but he has been victorious in five of his last eight visits to this track and Mercedes have provided the winner in five of the last six. Current form and track record all points to a win for him here, but I am going further and backing him for Pole Position too – he has turned front row on the grid to victory five times already this season and should make that number six in Italy.

I also expect the Winning Margin to be between 5 and 10 seconds (inclusive). Hamilton blew away the opposition in Spain a few weeks back, finishing 24.177 seconds ahead of second place, but that is the only ‘blow-out’ race in terms of the gap between him and the runner-up this season. Three of his last four winning margins have been between 5 and 10 seconds, and that could become four in five as he takes the chequered flag here.

My final recommendation is something of a ‘bold prediction’ – although this track record is not that bold. Haas drivers Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen have provided more DNFs than any other team so far this season, with the latter being the worst hit with three retirements in seven races. That has to make him the leading contender to be the first retirement here, and while he was not the first to go here 12 months ago, he did fail to finish. Lightning could strike twice for Magnussen on Sunday.

Italian Grand Prix Preview: Circuit Guide

With the exception of a handful of races, the city of Monza has been the host site from the Italian Grand Prix since it was introduced back in 1921. It has been forced to undergo numerous changes over the years in an attempt to boost driver, staff and fan safety because the circuit has been the site of a string of incidents that have resulted in the deaths of over 80 people. But even after those changes, the Italian Grand Prix remains one of the races that produces the highest speeds of the Formula 1 season. Michael Schumacher had been the most successful driver in the history of the Italian Grand Prix prior to the 2018 season, but with his fifth career win that year Lewis Hamilton moved level with the German legend in the all-time race standings.

Location: Autodromo Nazionale Monza, Monza, Italy
Number Of Laps: 53
Lap Length: 3.600 miles
Lap Record: Rubens Barrichello 1 minute 21.046 seconds (2004)

Italian Grand Prix Winners

YEAR DRIVER TEAM CIRCUIT
1921 Jules Goux Ballot Brescia
1922 Pietro Bordino Fiat Monza
1923 Carlo Salamano Fiat Monza
1924 Antonio Ascari Alfa Romeo Monza
1925 Gastone Brilli-Peri Alfa Romeo Monza
1926 Louis Charavel Bugatti Monza
1927 Robert Benoist Delage Monza
1928 Louis Chiron Bugatti Monza
1931 Giuseppe Campari
Tazio Nuvolari
Alfa Romeo Monza
1932 Tazio Nuvolari Alfa Romeo Monza
1933 Luigi Fagioli Alfa Romeo Monza
1934 Luigi Fagioli
Rudolf Caracciola
Mercedes-Benz Monza
1935 Hans Stuck Auto Union Monza
1936 Bernd Rosemeyer Auto Union Monza
1937 Rudolf Caracciola Mercedes-Benz Livorno
1938 Tazio Nuvolari Auto Union Monza
1947 Carlo Felice Alfa Romeo Milan
1948 Jean-Pierre Wimille Alfa Romeo Valentino Park
1949 Alberto Ascari Ferrari Monza
1950 Giuseppe Farina Alfa Romeo Monza
1951 Alberto Ascari Ferrari Monza
1952 Alberto Ascari Ferrari Monza
1953 Juan Manuel Fangio Maserati Monza
1954 Juan Manuel Fangio Mercedes Monza
1955 Juan Manuel Fangio Mercedes Monza
1956 Stirling Moss Maserati Monza
1957 Stirling moss Vanwall Monza
1958 Tony Brooks Vanwall Monza
1959 Stirling Moss Cooper-Climax Monza
1960 Phil Hill Ferrari Monza
1961 Phil Hill Ferrari Monza
1962 Graham Hill BRM Monza
1963 Jim Clark Lotus-Climax Monza
1964 John Surtees Ferrari Monza
1965 Jackie Stewart BRM Monza
1966 Ludovico Scarfiotti Ferrari Monza
1967 John Surtees Honda Monza
1968 Denny Hulme McLaren-Ford Monza
1969 Jackie Stewart Matra-Ford Monza
1970 Clay Regazzoni Ferrari Monza
1971 Peter Gethin BRM Monza
1972 Emerson Fittipaldi Lotus-Ford Monza
1973 Ronnie Peterson Lotus-Ford Monza
1974 Ronnie Peterson Lotus-Ford Monza
1975 Clay Regazzoni Ferrari Monza
1976 Ronnie Peterson March-Ford Monza
1977 Mario Andretti Lotus-Ford Monza
1978 Niki Lauda Brabham-Alfa Romeo Monza
1979 Jody Scheckter Ferrari Monza
1980 Nelson Piquet Brabham-Ford Imola
1981 Alain Prost Renault Monza
1982 Rene Arnoux Renault Monza
1983 Nelson Piquet Brabham-BMW Monza
1984 Niki Lauda McLaren-TAG Monza
1985 Alain Prost McLaren-TAG Monza
1986 Nelson Piquet Williams-Honda Monza
1987 Nelson Piquet Williams-Honda Monza
1988 Gerhard Berger Ferrari Monza
1989 Alain Prost McLaren-Honda Monza
1990 Ayrton Senna McLaren-Honda Monza
1991 Nigel Mansell Williams-Renault Monza
1992 Ayrton Senna McLaren-Honda Monza
1993 Damon Hill Williams-Renault Monza
1994 Damon Hill Williams-Renault Monza
1995 Johnny Herbert Benetton-Renault Monza
1996 Michael Schumacher Ferrari Monza
1997 David Coulthard McLaren-Mercedes Monza
1998 Michael Schumacher Ferrari Monza
1999 Heinz-Harald Frentzen Jordan-Mugen-Honda Monza
2000 Michael Schumacher Ferrari Monza
2001 Juan Pablo Montoya Williams-BMW Monza
2002 Rubens Barrichello Ferrari Monza
2003 Michael Schumacher Ferrari Monza
2004 Rubens Barrichello Ferrari Monza
2005 Juan Pablo Montoya McLaren-Mercedes Monza
2006 Michael Schumacher Ferrari Monza
2007 Fernando Alonso McLaren-Mercedes Monza
2008 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari Monza
2009 Rubens Barichello Brawn-Mercedes Monza
2010 Fernando Alonso Ferrari Monza
2011 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull-Renault Monza
2012 Lewis Hamilton McLaren-Mercedes Monza
2013 Sebastian Vettel Red Bull-Renault Monza
2014 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Monza
2015 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Monza
2016 Nico Rosberg Mercedes Monza
2017 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Monza
2018 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Monza
2019 Charles Leclerc Ferrari Monza