Italian Grand Prix Betting Tips & Predictions

Leigh Copson:

Lewis Hamilton made it five wins in seven races and extended his lead at the top of the Drivers’ Championship standings even further with a dominant victory in Belgium last weekend, but can he now make it three-in-a-row by winning this Sunday’s Italian Grand Prix?

Hamilton came into the 2020 as the bookmakers’ favourite to win it all once again and the first seven races of the season have done nothing but confirm what the bookies and all of us thought coming into the campaign – it was going to take some effort to prevent the Mercedes ace from romping to world title number seven.

The six-time world champion endured a nightmare start to the season, by his high standards, as he was forced to settle for fourth place in the delayed season opener, but since then he has been almost unstoppable with the only other blemish on his record coming when he finished second in the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix at Silverstone. That is the sort of blemish almost every other F1 driver would welcome and celebrate at this time!

But not Hamilton. He has established himself as the clear number one driver in the sport, aided by the number one car, and he has to be considered the man to back for the victory on Sunday. Hamilton was upstaged by Charles Leclerc in 2019 Italian Grand Prix, but he has been victorious in five of his last eight visits to this track and Mercedes have provided the winner in five of the last six. Current form and track record all points to a win for him here, but I am going further and backing him for Pole Position too – he has turned front row on the grid to victory five times already this season and should make that number six in Italy.

I also expect the Winning Margin to be between 5 and 10 seconds (inclusive). Hamilton blew away the opposition in Spain a few weeks back, finishing 24.177 seconds ahead of second place, but that is the only ‘blow-out’ race in terms of the gap between him and the runner-up this season. Three of his last four winning margins have been between 5 and 10 seconds, and that could become four in five as he takes the chequered flag here.

My final recommendation is something of a ‘bold prediction’ – although this track record is not that bold. Haas drivers Romain Grosjean and Kevin Magnussen have provided more DNFs than any other team so far this season, with the latter being the worst hit with three retirements in seven races. That has to make him the leading contender to be the first retirement here, and while he was not the first to go here 12 months ago, he did fail to finish. Lightning could strike twice for Magnussen on Sunday.

Italian Grand Prix Preview: Circuit Guide

With the exception of a handful of races, the city of Monza has been the host site from the Italian Grand Prix since it was introduced back in 1921. It has been forced to undergo numerous changes over the years in an attempt to boost driver, staff and fan safety because the circuit has been the site of a string of incidents that have resulted in the deaths of over 80 people. But even after those changes, the Italian Grand Prix remains one of the races that produces the highest speeds of the Formula 1 season. Michael Schumacher had been the most successful driver in the history of the Italian Grand Prix prior to the 2018 season, but with his fifth career win that year Lewis Hamilton moved level with the German legend in the all-time race standings.

Location: Autodromo Nazionale Monza, Monza, Italy
Number Of Laps: 53
Lap Length: 3.600 miles
Lap Record: Rubens Barrichello 1 minute 21.046 seconds (2004)

Italian Grand Prix Winners

YEARDRIVERTEAMCIRCUIT
1921Jules GouxBallotBrescia
1922Pietro BordinoFiatMonza
1923Carlo SalamanoFiatMonza
1924Antonio AscariAlfa RomeoMonza
1925Gastone Brilli-PeriAlfa RomeoMonza
1926Louis CharavelBugattiMonza
1927Robert BenoistDelageMonza
1928Louis ChironBugattiMonza
1931Giuseppe Campari
Tazio Nuvolari
Alfa RomeoMonza
1932Tazio NuvolariAlfa RomeoMonza
1933Luigi FagioliAlfa RomeoMonza
1934Luigi Fagioli
Rudolf Caracciola
Mercedes-BenzMonza
1935Hans StuckAuto UnionMonza
1936Bernd RosemeyerAuto UnionMonza
1937Rudolf CaracciolaMercedes-BenzLivorno
1938Tazio NuvolariAuto UnionMonza
1947Carlo FeliceAlfa RomeoMilan
1948Jean-Pierre WimilleAlfa RomeoValentino Park
1949Alberto AscariFerrariMonza
1950Giuseppe FarinaAlfa RomeoMonza
1951Alberto AscariFerrariMonza
1952Alberto AscariFerrariMonza
1953Juan Manuel FangioMaseratiMonza
1954Juan Manuel FangioMercedesMonza
1955Juan Manuel FangioMercedesMonza
1956Stirling MossMaseratiMonza
1957Stirling mossVanwallMonza
1958Tony BrooksVanwallMonza
1959Stirling MossCooper-ClimaxMonza
1960Phil HillFerrariMonza
1961Phil HillFerrariMonza
1962Graham HillBRMMonza
1963Jim ClarkLotus-ClimaxMonza
1964John SurteesFerrariMonza
1965Jackie StewartBRMMonza
1966Ludovico ScarfiottiFerrariMonza
1967John SurteesHondaMonza
1968Denny HulmeMcLaren-FordMonza
1969Jackie StewartMatra-FordMonza
1970Clay RegazzoniFerrariMonza
1971Peter GethinBRMMonza
1972Emerson FittipaldiLotus-FordMonza
1973Ronnie PetersonLotus-FordMonza
1974Ronnie PetersonLotus-FordMonza
1975Clay RegazzoniFerrariMonza
1976Ronnie PetersonMarch-FordMonza
1977Mario AndrettiLotus-FordMonza
1978Niki LaudaBrabham-Alfa RomeoMonza
1979Jody ScheckterFerrariMonza
1980Nelson PiquetBrabham-FordImola
1981Alain ProstRenaultMonza
1982Rene ArnouxRenaultMonza
1983Nelson PiquetBrabham-BMWMonza
1984Niki LaudaMcLaren-TAGMonza
1985Alain ProstMcLaren-TAGMonza
1986Nelson PiquetWilliams-HondaMonza
1987Nelson PiquetWilliams-HondaMonza
1988Gerhard BergerFerrariMonza
1989Alain ProstMcLaren-HondaMonza
1990Ayrton SennaMcLaren-HondaMonza
1991Nigel MansellWilliams-RenaultMonza
1992Ayrton SennaMcLaren-HondaMonza
1993Damon HillWilliams-RenaultMonza
1994Damon HillWilliams-RenaultMonza
1995Johnny HerbertBenetton-RenaultMonza
1996Michael SchumacherFerrariMonza
1997David CoulthardMcLaren-MercedesMonza
1998Michael SchumacherFerrariMonza
1999Heinz-Harald FrentzenJordan-Mugen-HondaMonza
2000Michael SchumacherFerrariMonza
2001Juan Pablo MontoyaWilliams-BMWMonza
2002Rubens BarrichelloFerrariMonza
2003Michael SchumacherFerrariMonza
2004Rubens BarrichelloFerrariMonza
2005Juan Pablo MontoyaMcLaren-MercedesMonza
2006Michael SchumacherFerrariMonza
2007Fernando AlonsoMcLaren-MercedesMonza
2008Sebastian VettelFerrariMonza
2009Rubens BarichelloBrawn-MercedesMonza
2010Fernando AlonsoFerrariMonza
2011Sebastian VettelRed Bull-RenaultMonza
2012Lewis HamiltonMcLaren-MercedesMonza
2013Sebastian VettelRed Bull-RenaultMonza
2014Lewis HamiltonMercedesMonza
2015Lewis HamiltonMercedesMonza
2016Nico RosbergMercedesMonza
2017Lewis HamiltonMercedesMonza
2018Lewis HamiltonMercedesMonza
2019Charles LeclercFerrariMonza