Premier League Golden Boot Outright Tips & Predictions

Brett Curtis /
pl golden boot sky bet

The Premier League Golden Boot race is always one of the more fascinating sub-plots of the season, both from a betting and casual viewing perspective, and here at BettingPro.com we will run you through all the runners and riders as per SkyBet's odds.

Last season, Mohamed Salah and Son Heung-min shared the Premier League’s Golden Boot with 23 goals apiece, with Cristiano Ronaldo and Harry Kane bagging the other two each-way spots. (Remember, Sky Bet – like most bookmakers – offer four places at 1/4 odds.)

The Egyptian has impressively won the award three times in his five seasons with Liverpool, with Kane also topping the goalscorers chart three times since the 2015-16 campaign.

Only Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has managed to outright break Salah and Kane’s near-stranglehold in those seven seasons, but there’s a new sheriff in town this season, at least as far as Sky Bet are concerned!

Erling Haaland

After joining champions Manchester City from Borussia Dortmund this summer, it’s perhaps no surprise to see goal machine Erling Haaland immediately installed as Sky Bet’s 11/4 favourite to scoop the Golden Boot in his debut campaign.

The Norwegian scored 62 goals in 67 Bundesliga appearances, although he never managed to dethrone Robert Lewandowski and claim Germany’s top goalscorer award in his two full seasons there.

Of course, Lewandowski benefitted from playing for Bayern Munich, the de facto German champions season upon season. City aren’t quite on Bayern’s levels of dominance, but they have won four of the last five Premier League titles, scoring the most goals in each of those five campaigns.

If the 22-year-old stays fit, which isn’t a guarantee with his increasing muscular niggles, there’s every chance Haaland can follow in Salah’s footsteps and win the Golden Boot in his debut Premier League campaign.

Mohamed Salah

Having signed a new three-year contract to extend his stay at Liverpool, Mohamed Salah may be hungrier than ever to fire the Reds to the title.

His record since signing for Jurgen Klopp’s side speaks for itself. 118 goals in 180 Premier League appearances is a simply phenomenal record for a forward who rarely plays through the middle.

Only once has the ‘Egyptian King’ failed to score 20 league goals in a season, which ironically was the season Liverpool finally ended their top-flight drought to win the title in 2019-20, with Salah scoring 19 league goals.

Guaranteed to be on penalties when he starts and very rarely injured, Salah is where the safe money should be going at 9/2, especially with each-way places on offer.

Harry Kane

Despite scoring only two goals before Christmas last season, Harry Kane would still have nabbed punters an each-way place in the Golden Boot market after finishing on 17 league goals for Antonio Conte’s side.

Indeed, the 28-year-old’s upturn in form after the Italian’s appointment was remarkable. 16 goals and 8 assists in 28 games put him right back in the conversation among the best players in the division, which he undoubtedly is.

In his eight seasons since breaking through at Spurs, Kane has only twice failed to finish among the top four goalscorers in the division, when injuries restricted him to fewer than 30 appearances in the 2018-19 and 2019-20 campaigns. He still bagged 17 and 18 goals respectively, though.

The evidence is clear, then: should the 28-year-old stay clear of injuries, he’s bound to be there or thereabouts. Clinical in the air, with either foot, and from penalties, Kane is a born goalscorer and represents value at 11/2.

Darwin Nunez

Signed as Sadio Mane’s replacement after the Senegal forward departed for Bayern, there will be plenty of pressure on Darwin Nunez’s shoulders after Liverpool committed a potentially record-breaking £84m to bring the striker from Benfica.

The 23-year-old fired 34 goals in 41 games for the Portuguese side last season, and has already hit the ground running in pre-season after scoring four goals in a friendly against RB Leipzig.

At 11/1, he’s seen as Sky Bet’s most likely Golden Boot winner outside of the main three candidates. However, with Salah still likely to be the Reds’ main goal-getter, it may be worth taking a wait and see approach with the Uruguyan.

Son Heung-min

After sharing the Golden Boot with Salah last season, 12/1 looks decent value for the South Korean to pick up where he left off.

After finishing inside the top four places with 17 goals the season beforehand, the 30-year-old’s growing goal threat is clear for all to see.

Arguably the most clinical, two-footed forward in the division, Son is thriving from Kane dropping deeper and threading pin-point through balls for his team-mate to run onto.

However, can he really score 20+ goals again? I have my doubts.

Cristiano Ronaldo

Like Kane, Cristiano Ronaldo still managed to put a stuttering start behind him to bag punters an each-way place in the top goalscorers’ market last season after finishing on 18 league goals for Manchester United.

However, with his future at Old Trafford still unclear at the time of writing, the 37-year-old represents a risky bet, even if 14/1 does look great value for one of the best players of all-time.

Gabriel Jesus

Gabriel Jesus never troubled the Golden Boot race during his six seasons with Man City, but that could change as the main man at Arsenal.

Often starting from a wide berth or coming off the bench under Pep Guardiola, Jesus has already bagged four goals in four friendlies as the Gunners’ central striker in pre-season.

Whether the 25-year-old can score the amount of goals it may take to finish above the likes of Haaland, Salah or Kane remains to be seen, but he could prove to be a good each-way punt, even if 14/1 seems on the skinny side to me.

Raheem Sterling

Like Jesus, Raheem Sterling found himself marginalised in recent seasons at Man City, but the 27-year-old has hit double figures in the Premier League five seasons in a row and looks primed to do so again as Chelsea’s main man.

Sterling has adapted his game in recent years, focusing less on beating players and more at expertly arriving at the right moment to provide the finishing touch to team moves.

However, he rarely takes penalties and it remains to be seen what role Thomas Tuchel envisages for him. It would be a surprise if the England man doesn’t hit double figures yet again, but I’m not sure if he can trouble the places at 28/1.

Jamie Vardy

At 33/1, Jamie Vardy may well represent the best each-way shout among the runners and riders.

Putting aside his debut Premier League campaign, during which he often played from the left and Leicester were fighting against relegation, the Foxes legend has bagged 128 goals in 236 league games.

Even last season, in which injuries massively disrupted his campaign, the 35-year-old still struck 15 goals in 25 games. Two more goals and he would have been on the podium for the fourth time in seven seasons.

Whether he can stay injury free at this stage of his career remains to be seen, but if he does then he’s undoubtedly incredible value for an each-way place.

Anthony Martial

Perhaps the dark horse as the biggest price on this list at 40/1, Anthony Martial is where the wild-card money may be going in the Golden Boot race.

Back at Man Utd after an unsuccessful loan spell with Sevilla last season, the 26-year-old has started all four pre-season games as a central striker under Erik ten Hag, scoring three goals.

Martial’s best season in a Man Utd shirt was when he bagged 17 league goals in the 2019-20 campaign. Last season that would have been enough for an each-way place. With Ronaldo’s future unclear, could a sensational return to form be on the cards for the Frenchman?

Other Candidates

Of course, you don’t have to go with any of the above 10 candidates I’ve chosen. There are plenty of other players on Sky Bet’s list.

Kai Havertz (33/1) and Diogo Jota (40/1) could both start plenty of matches through the middle for Chelsea and Liverpool respectively. If they catch fire they look interesting options.

It’s worth noting that, in all bar three seasons since the inception of the Premier League in 1992, a non big-six player has placed in the Golden Boot each-way market. So if you don’t fancy Vardy, Callum Wilson and Ollie Watkins provide alternative options at the 33/1 mark.

At 40/1, there’s West Ham duo Gianluca Scamacca and Jarrod Bowen, Everton front-man Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Fulham goal-machine Aleksandar Mitrovic and Brentford focal point Ivan Toney.

Among the triple-figure prices, which has seen a player land an each-way spot in 12 of the last 20 seasons, could Bukayo Saka be the man to deliver? Seemingly on penalties for Arsenal now, the 20-year-old scored 11 league goals last season and could explode at any moment.

Nottingham Forest’s new signing Taiwo Awoniyi is also an intriguing 100/1 shot after scoring 15 goals in the Bundesliga for Union Berlin last season.

Selections

Personally, I think it’s very difficult to look beyond the top three in the market, who are all capable of scoring 25+ league goals in an individually brilliant season.

In Haaland’s favour is his unpredictability as a new player in the league, as well as him being the out-and-out goal-getter at Man City. Salah and Kane will have the likes of Nunez, Jota and Son sharing the goals with them to a level I don’t foresee with Haaland and Man City’s brilliant band of attacking midfielders. I couldn’t dissuade anyone from plumping for the Norwegian, but he’s too short to back each-way in my opinion.

However, Haaland and Kane do both pick up the odd injury, whereas Salah consistently plays 35+ league games for Liverpool. The Reds don’t have anyone to effectively cover him on that right-hand side. While I think Haaland or Kane may end up edging up for top spot, Salah is the safest each-way pick in my view, with his odds of 9/2 meaning you will still more than double your each-way stake should he finish in the top four places.

At the bigger prices, I really like the look of Vardy and Watkins at 33/1. Both have the pace, movement and finishing ability to score 15-20 goals, which is often enough to earn an each-way place.

Whoever you end up plumping for, remember to gamble responsibly! begambleaware.org

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