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Shanghai Masters 2016 tips & betting advice - Betting tips, match previews and live stream links for the Shanghai Masters

Neil Roarty 15 Oct 2016

Bettingpro.com's Neil Roarty picks out the best bets from the outright market at the 2016 Shanghai Masters plus match previews and betting tips and a guide on how to live stream and bet in-play on all of the action from China.


Murray v Bautista-Agut Betting Tips


Back Andy Murray (-5 Games) @Marathonbet


Andy Murray failed to cover the handicap against Gilles Simon in Saturday's semi-final, preventing the clean sweep but Novak Djokovic's defeat to Roberto Bautista-Agut more than made up for it. Not only did the Spaniard land the money against the world number one but he also removed the biggest obstacle from Murray's path to the Shanghai Masters title. The Scot now only has to beat Bautista-Agut on Sunday in order to bag the 10/3 on Murray in the outright market. Anyone who took our advice and backed the British number one at the start of the week will be happy with their position as, with Murray now a best priced 1/7 to land the Shanghai Masters title, they can either cash out the bet for a profit or let it run.

The advice is to stick with the Scot, who has been imperious all week in Shanghai and is riding a nine match winning streak in the Far East after winning the China Open title last week. He's served brilliantly, returned even better and looked unbeatable. Bautistia-Agut may have beaten last year's finalist Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and champion Djokovic but this is a much tougher test.

The odds are pretty short though on Murray and once again it's back to the handicap market for those looking to back him on Sunday. The line has been set at 5.5 games by most of the bookmakers but Marathonbet have opted for a five game line and are offering 5/6 on Murray covering that, with bets void if he wins by exactly five games. 

That looks like a good bet as Murray will put enough pressure on his opponent's serve to force a couple of breaks per set. Bautista-Agut was fairly solid against Tsonga but the Frenchman isn't a good returner. He was a little more suspect in the second set against Djokovic but benefited from the fact that the Serb didn't get going until he was 4-2 down (at which point he immediately broke). Djokovic then blew his chance of getting back into the game with a weak service game and he had too much to do with Bautista-Agut too close to the finish line to lose. 

The Spaniard did, however, show some serious nerves against the world number one and now that he has had time to process his achievement in beating Djokovic they will only grow. That was by far the biggest win of Bautista-Agut's career and Sunday's is mostv likely the biggest match that he will ever play in as a professional tennis player. If he overthinks it then he could completely collapse under the lights in Shanghai and Murray is exactly the kind of player who will seize upon any uncertainty. The Scot will come out firing and it wouldn't be a surprise if he managed an early break and ran away with the first set. If that happens then there's no way that he won't cover the five game handicap.


Outright Tips

The 2016 Shanghai Masters sees the return to the ATP Tour of Novak Djokovic, who missed last week's China Open due to an elbow injury and the big question for punters is how motivated will the world number one be in the Far East? Djokovic has spoken of his loss of passion for tennis since completing the career Grand Slam at Roland Garros and it's tempting to say that the Serb would be better to take an extended break and come back fully refreshed, rather than play a pared down schedule interrupted by niggling injuries.

"Since Roland Garros I haven't succeeded in finding emotional fulfillment on court," Djokovic said. 

"I felt too psychologically burdened in pre-tournament training and official matches, and I didn't like that at all because I don't play tennis only to win titles and be No. 1 in the world."

"I want once again to enjoy every training and every moment I spend on court. The psychological approach and attitude is changing and I want neither to talk nor to think at all about No. 1 or winning titles."

He is the defending champion in Shanghai but these kind of statements wouldn't compel anyone to place a bet on the man who has won the title here in three of the last four seasons, particularly at best odds of 13/8 with Coral. Djokovic has been given a tough draw in China and will have to come through a quarter containing China Open finalist Grigor Dimitrov, Tokyo Open champion Nick Kyrgios and Japan Open champion Tomas Berdych. Richard Gasquet, Ivo Karlovic and Djokovic's Wimbledon conqueror Sam Querrey are hardly cannon fodder either and that's all before the semi-finals.

Kyrgios, at 50/1 with Betfair is probably the man most likely to come through in place of the top seed as the Australian looked great in Tokyo last week. The 21-year-old was more focused in the Japanese capital than he has been at any event recently and wins over Gael Monfils and David Goffin were very impressive. He's won his last two against Berdych and so should reach the quarters and on some of the quickest courts on the ATP Tour he could spring a shock against Djokovic, who has never faced the young Aussie in a competitive match. If it's Dimitrov, Gasquet or Fognini then Kyrgios's chances of making the semi-finals only increase.

The winner of the first quarter will almost certainly make it to the final in Shanghai as the second section looks to be very weak. Rafael Nadal, who is 20/1 with Ladbrokes to win the title, is the top seed but the Spaniard was awful against Dimitrov in Beijing and he'll almost certainly struggle in the quick conditions. Nadal has a fairly routine first few matches but a meeting with Alex Zverev, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Marin Cilic should see the fourth seed eliminated. None of that trio would worry anyone from the top quarter though as they have all shown weakness in recent weeks. Tsonga, at 661 with Skybet is perhaps an outside bet as he reached the final here last week but the Frenchman hasn't played since withdrawing from the US Open through injury and it's asking a lot for him to play himself into tournament winning form.

The bottom half of the draw looks like a straight shoot-out between Andy Murray (10/3, Betfair) and Stan Wawrinka (16/1, Betfair) as Milos Raonic's ankle injury should put paid to his challenge. David Goffin, who was beaten in the final of the Tokyo Open by Kyrgios, and David Ferrer won't have the power to cope with the quick conditions while Gael Monfils is unlikely to be able to come through matches with Kevin Anderson and Juan Martin Del Potro and still have enough energy to beat Murray. The Frenchman is a 50/1 shot at Betfair but the fact that Del Potro is no bigger than 20/1 at Skybet indicates that the layers are expecting the Argentine to win that battle anyway.

Del Potro is actually a dark horse for the title in Shanghai after his run to the Olympic final and his Davis Cup heroics for Argentina. Unfortunately the 28-year-old wild card is still finding his feet after injury problems and Murray, who looked imperious when winning the China Open without dropping a set, should come through against him.

Whether Murray can beat Wawrinka though will depend on how much the US Open champion wants to bring to the court in Shanghai. The Swiss looked fairly focused when playing in St. Petersburg but lost in the final to a more motivated Zverev and something similar may happen this week. Wawrinka has never gone beyond the quarter-finals in Shanghai and so he's tough to back for the title in China, especially if he does face Murray, who will be desperate for the points as he tries to reel in Djokovic and gain the world number one spot.

An early exit for the Serb would open the door for the British number one and he looks in the mood to seize it. Murray has made the final of each of the last three Masters 1000 events and will be annoyed with himself at only having won one of the three. This is an event, however, where he is more comfortable than most, having won the title three times in his last six appearances. He's the form player on the ATP Tour after a hugely successful summer and he's the one to back again this week. If he faced Kyrgios on the final then so much the better as he has a 5-0 record against the Australian.

Recommendation

Back Andy Murray to win the Shanghai Masters @10/3 with Betfair

Previous Tips

Total Profit/Loss: +2.66 units (to 1 unit stake)

Back Ivo Karlovic v Vasek Pospisil - Tie-Break in First Set @5/4 - WON +1.25pts
Back Mikhail Youzhny v Nicolas Almagro - Back Youzhny (-2.5 Games) @5/6 - LOST -1pt
Back Richard Gasquet to beat Grigor Dimitrov @11/10 - LOST -1pt
Back Feliciano Lopez to beat David Ferrer @2/1 - WON +2pts
Back Lucas Pouille (-4 Games) to beat Nicolas Almagro @9/10  - LOST -1pt
Back Feliciano Lopez to beat Jack Sock @11/10 - LOST -1pt
Back Viktor Troicki to beat Roberto Baustista-Agut @6/4 - LOST -1pt
Back Marcel Granollers to beat Mischa Zverev @4/5 - LOST -1pt
Back Roberto Bautista-Agut to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga @6/4 - WON +1.5pts
Back Novak Djokovic (-6 Games) to beat Mischa Zverev @10/11 - LOST -1pts
Back Andy Murray (-5 Games) to beat David Goffin @10/11 - WON +0.91pts
Back Jack Sock to beat Gilles Simon @11/10 - LOST -1pt
Back Andy Murray (-5.5 Games) to beat Gilles Simon @Evens - LOST -1pt
Back Roberto Bautista-Agut (+4.5 Games) to beat Novak Djokovic @Evens - WON +1pt
Back Roberto Bautista Agut to beat Novak Djokovic @5/1 - WON +5pts

How to bet on the Shanghai Masters


Betting on the Shanghai Masters is very straight-forward. Every major bookmaker will offer outright odds, bets on who will each quarter and then a wide range of match betting options. To find the various markets available, simply go to the bookmaker of your choice and head to the TENNIS menu, which will either be found via a direct link on the homepage or in the A-Z menu. Once there simply scroll through the different options and find the bet of your choice.

If you want to place accumulator bets on matches then simply click on the odds for each player and they will automatically be added to your betting slip. Once you have made your selections, click on the slip and all available multiple options will be displayed. Input your stake and place your bets.

Outright Winner Bets

All bookmakers will offer odds on the outright winner of the Shanghai Masters. This will be available throughout the tournament and the odds will be updated after each match. Some firms even offer outright betting while matches are in play. Each-way terms on this bet are 1/2 odds for 1,2 places. This means that if you bet on Andy Murray at odds of 4/1 and he loses in the final then you will lose half your stake but the other half will be paid at odds of 2/1, which would result in a profit. Be aware that you must select "each-way" on your betslip if you wish to have this insurance and that your stake will be doubled - a £10 each-way bet on Murray will require a total stake of £20.

Quarter Winner Bets

This bet is only available pre-tournament with some bookmakers. The bet is for a player to win their quarter of the draw, which is effectively saying that the player will make the semi-finals. This bet can be a good way to profit from players who have been given a good draw but who are unlikely to progress to the final or to win the tournament. 

Match Betting

All bookmakers will offer odds on individual match winners and it is simply a case of backing who you think will win the match.

Correct Score Betting

This is as simple as it seems, you bet on the final score in the match. There are four options; 2-0, 2-1, 1-2 and 0-2 and the bookmaker will offer odds on each. If you are correct then you win your bet.

Game Handicap Betting

Most bookmakers will offer game handicap betting on Shanghai Masters matches. This is where you don't bet on a player to win the match but attempt to predict by how many games they will win. The bookmakers set a predicted game line to give both players odds of around even money and then you make your selection on whether the line is correct or not. This is a good bet to place when there are strong favourites in a match. Novak Djokovic, for example, will be around 1/20 to beat Fabio Fognini in the first round. There will be some that will think that the Serb will win easily and so may want to bet on him to beat the Italian by more than six games (6-3, 6-3 or better) while there are others who may think Fognini can keep the match tight and so will either win or lose by less than six games.

Total Games Betting

Similar to the handicap, the bookmaker will set a line on how many games there will be in a match. The odds will then be roughly even money on either side of the line and punters have to decide whether there will be more or less than the amount of games predicted. A standard line for a hot favourite may be around 20 games, which would mean a 6-4, 6-4 win. If you think that there will be more than that (in a match where there are big servers for example) then you can bet on the Over. If you think there will be less then you can back Under. It doesn't matter who wins the match, simply how many games are played.

In-Play Betting

All bookmakers now offer in-play betting and the number of markets vary depending on the firm. bet365 tend to have the most and are quickest to update due to their live streaming technology, which is often ahead of the TV pictures. They will offer markets ranging from match winner to next point and the odds will reflect how the match is panning out. There are, however, often opportunities for tennis experts to read the game better than the traders and so to make a profit in-play.

Bookmaker Offers


There will be daily offers on the Shanghai Masters from all major bookmakers. These can be found in our betting promotions section, which is updated daily and lists all enhanced odds and money back specials for both new and existing customers.

One stand-out offer which is available throughout the year is from Paddy Power, who give anyone who places 50 tennis bets in a week a free bet of the same value as the average staked.


Free Bets Available




Shanghai Masters Live Streaming

The Shanghai Masters is being screened live on Sky Sports in the UK and on various other satellite providers around the world. The tournament is, however, also being streamed live online by bookmaker bet365.

The firm have full access to all courts in Shanghai and so will stream every match live from the Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena live online. The matches are free to watch for all members with the only requirement that you have a funded bet365 account. 

It is free to open an account and anyone who registers during the Shanghai Masters using bonus code MAXCASH can claim a 100% first deposit bonus of up to £200. To open an account and qualify for this offer:

  1. Go to bet365.com
  2. Register your account details (username, personal details)
  3. Enter bonus code MAXCASH when prompted
  4. Register your payment details and make a deposit
  5. Receive a 100% matched deposit bonus (max £200)
  6. Watch the Shanghai Masters live and bet in-play

Tournament Schedule 

The Shanghai Masters will run from Sunday October 9 til Sunday October 16. The matches will be played from 10:00am local time each day of the tournament. Shanghai is seven hours ahead of BST so the live coverage begins at 03:00am in the UK.

The top 8 players receive byes to the second round with the other 48 entrants playing in the first round. The draw for the Shanghai Masters can be found here.


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Shanghai Masters 2016 tips & betting advice - Betting tips, match previews and live stream links for the Shanghai Masters

Bettingpro.com's Neil Roarty picks out the best bets from the outright market at the 2016 Shanghai Masters plus match previews and betting tips and a guide on how to live stream and bet in-play on all of the action from China.

Read more »

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