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Federer vs Nadal ATP Indian Wells SF predictions and betting tips

Andrew Hendrie 16 Mar 2019
  • Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal clash in the Indian Wells semi-finals on Saturday
  • Nadal leads their head-to-head 23-15
  • Federer has won their last five meetings, all on hardcourt

Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer ATP Indian Wells semi-final match preview, predictions and betting tips - Federer appears set for a sixth consecutive win over his great rival…

Date: Saturday March 16
Time: 12.30pm local time (7.30pm GMT)
Court: Stadium 1

Nadal vs Federer predictions


Another chapter will be written in one of the greatest rivalries tennis has ever seen on Saturday at Indian Wells as Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal square off for the 39th time for a spot in the final. Nadal had dominated the head-to-head against Federer for the bulk of their respective careers and still leads 23-15, but the Swiss has pegged him back in recent years, winning their last five meetings - all of which have come on hardcourt, including a fourth round clash at Indian Wells in 2017. In fact, Nadal hasn’t beaten Federer since the 2014 Australian Open semi-finals and hasn’t taken a set off him in their last three encounters. Add in a possible knee injury sustained during the semi-finals on Friday, and it appears Nadal could be staring down the barrel of another defeat on Saturday…

Indeed, Nadal was visibly struggling during the second set of his win over Karen Khachanov in the semi-finals, and although he won that match in straight sets, he admitted in his post-match press conference that his knee was hurting and he might even be forced to pull out, depending on how he feels tomorrow morning. Nadal is 39/20 @ Betfair to claim his 24th win over Federer.

While Nadal is facing an uphill battle to even be 100 per cent fit for Saturday, there’s no such drama for Federer, who breezed into the semi-finals courtesy of a 6-4 6-4 win over Hubert Hurkacz. Federer hasn’t faced a break point since his opening match in Indian Wells and has been coasting through all of his matches with minimal fuss, including a straight sets win over Stan Wawrinka. Federer is 4/9 @ Unibet to register his sixth straight win over Nadal.

Nadal vs Federer match stats


  • Nadal leads their head-to-head 23-15
  • Federer leads their head-to-head on hardcourts 11-9
  • Federer has won their last five meetings
  • Nadal’s last win over Federer came at the 2014 Australian Open
  • Federer hasn’t dropped a set vs Nadal in their last three encounters
  • Federer won their last clash at Indian Wells in straight sets in R4 in 2017

Nadal vs Federer betting tips


You’ve got to wonder, considering his recent losses to Federer on hardcourt and his woes on the surface in general over the last two years, what version of Nadal will turn up on Saturday - or if he even takes to court at all. Federer is 11-9 on hardcourt over Nadal now, and will be licking his lips at facing him again, especially if his movement is hindered. Taking into consideration their recent matches on the surface and Nadal’s dodgy right knee, Federer should be on course for a sixth straight win over Nadal and a return to the Indian Wells final.

Nadal vs Federer odds


Nadal to win - 39/20 @ Betfair
Federer to win - 4/9 @ Unibet

Nadal vs Federer recommended bet


Federer to win in straight sets at 11/10 @ bet365

Check out all of our tennis match previews and betting tips here.


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Federer vs Nadal ATP Indian Wells SF predictions and betting tips

Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer ATP Indian Wells semi-final match preview, predictions and betting tips - Federer appears set for a sixth consecutive win over his great rival…

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