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US Open Bet of the Day: Bettingpro’s best tennis bet for Sunday, September 8

Hannah Wilks 7 Sep 2019
Rafael Nadal (credit:Dubreuil Corinne/ABACA/ABACA/PA Images)

The 2019 US Open is here and every day our resident tennis experts will be picking out their favourite bet from the final Grand Slam of the year, free of charge!

Today’s Best Bet: Sunday 8 September

Hannah Wilks: Back Rafael Nadal to beat Daniil Medvedev 3-0 @ 6/5 Betfair
Daniil Medvedev has been the story of the summer and will continue to be even after the US Open final, but his first Grand Slam final looks like it should be a straight-sets defeat to Rafael Nadal.
Nadal has been more successful at the US Open than any other major outside the French Open, and from the start, this tournament has really been his to lose – certainly since Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer went out before the semifinals. And a healthy Nadal rarely squanders an opportunity like this.
With an 18-8 record in Grand Slam finals, and Stan Wawrinka the only player other than Djokovic or Federer to beat him in one, Nadal has an immense advantage in experience coming into this US Open final. He also has a clear physical advantage. He’s played nine matches since Wimbledon; Medvedev has played over double that many with 22, and has played a lot more sets at the US Open, 22 to Nadal’s 16. The Russian may have looked a lot more fit in his last couple of matches than he did earlier in the tournament, when he was struggling with his quad and glutes and who knows what else, but he’s carrying an incredible load of matches on his legs and back right now, and you simply don’t beat Nadal over the best of five sets if you’re not coming into the match confident you can go toe to toe with him for at least three hours.
The one previous meeting between these two came in the final of the Canada Masters a few weeks ago, which Nadal won 6-3, 6-0. That was a windy day in Montreal, and conditions shouldn’t be that bad in New York (although it can get pretty swirly on the Arthur Ashe Stadium if the roof isn’t closed). But it’s noticeable how quickly Medvedev ran out of ideas, and steam. His attempts to outlast Nadal in rallies of 25, 30 shots or more didn’t work, and fizzled out after the first few games, and his attempts to change this up – shifting his serving position towards the doubles alley, for example – didn’t bother the Spaniard either. 
Medvedev, fundamentally, is a player who tempts or frustrates or manoeuvres his opponents into unforced errors; Nadal, fundamentally, is a player whose game is built on the proven ability to hit deep, heavy balls from the baseline without missing, all day, every day. He can also mix things up by attacking the net to incredible effect, something we saw him increasingly do against Matteo Berrettini in the semifinals.
Medvedev has been winning his matches, as much as anything, because he’s high on confidence. We saw that against Grigor Dimitrov in the semifinals, when Dimitrov should have won the first set, managed to lose it, and went away thereafter, abandoning a game plan that had been working. Nadal, meanwhile, won a set he should have lost against Berrettini in the opener, mainly by refusing to relinquish it and making the Italian work for every single point, and more or less steamrolled from there. Nobody is better at crushing an opponent mentally than Nadal, and we saw in Montreal how quickly things can unravel for Medvedev under that kind of pressure. Nadal’s cross-court forehand wide to the Medvedev backhand, his ability to win cheap points on his serve, even his deep return stance to take away from Medvedev’s chances to change things up on serve – I expect all these things to be on full and formidable display on Sunday, and it’s going to get him a straight-sets win and a fourth US Open title.


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US Open Bet of the Day: Bettingpro’s best tennis bet for Sunday, September 8

The 2019 US Open is here and every day our resident tennis experts will be picking out their favourite bet from the final Grand Slam of the year, free of charge!

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