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ATP Tour Finals Bet of the Day: Bettingpro’s best tennis bet for Sunday, November 10

Hannah Wilks 9 Nov 2019
Roger Federer (credit:Paul Zimmer via www.imago-images.de/Imago/PA Images)

The 2019 ATP Tour Finals are here and every day our resident tennis experts will be picking out their favourite bet from the season-ending tournament, free of charge!

Today’s Best Bet: Sunday, November 10


Hannah Wilks: Back Roger Federer to beat Dominic Thiem 2-1 @ 16/5 Ladbrokes

If the 2019 ATP Finals might not exactly start with a bang as Novak Djokovic takes on first-timer Matteo Berrettini in Sunday’s day session, the evening match in Group Bjorn Borg promises many more fireworks as Roger Federer, winner of a record six titles at the season-ending championships, takes on French Open finalist Dominic Thiem.

Federer is one of three players in the eight-man field to have gone unbeaten on indoor hard courts in 2019 so far, going 5-0 at the only event he played on indoor hard – the Swiss Indoors Basel – to pick up his fourth title of the year.

Thiem has been all but a walking bye at the ATP Finals on his three previous appearances, in all of which he has failed to score more than one singles win or get out of his group. But there are definite signs that the Austrian will be a much more formidable opponent at the ATP Finals than he was last year, when Federer beat him 2 and 3 in the group stages. Usually Thiem has completely run out of steam by this point in the season, but smarter scheduling in 2019, and an illness which kept his American swing workload light, should see him a bit more energized, and the Austrian has improved tremendously on hard courts this year. He still had his best result of the season – reaching the French Open final – on clay, but won his maiden Masters 1000 Series event on hard courts at Indian Wells, beating Federer in the final, and has gone 13-2 in his last four events, winning 500 titles in Beijing and on indoor hard courts in Vienna.

That’s good form, despite an early defeat to Grigor Dimitrov in Paris – if anything, that loss will have boosted his chances by giving him more time to rest ahead of London.

It’s harder to make definitive statements about Federer’s form, given that he has played just two events since the US Open and pulled out of Paris. But he has played and won more ATP Finals matches than anybody else in the field, and if he hasn’t made the final since 2015, he hasn’t failed to reach the semi-finals once in the past decade.

Thiem actually leads the head-to-head with Federer 4-2, and won both of the matches they have played so far this season, but three of those wins have come on natural surfaces and Federer leads the hard-court head-to-head 2-1, including a one-sided victory over Thiem at last year’s ATP Finals. A slow start from Federer would not be a surprise as he has had a propensity for them this year, but he has also won more matches from a set down than any other player in the ATP Finals field and he should come back to win in three, able to take advantage of Thiem’s determination to hang  back behind the baseline.

Today’s Best Bet: Sunday, November 10



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ATP Tour Finals Bet of the Day: Bettingpro’s best tennis bet for Sunday, November 10

The 2019 ATP Tour Finals are here and every day our resident tennis experts will be picking out their favourite bet from the season-ending tournament, free of charge!

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