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2017 Nitto ATP World Tour Finals betting guide, tips & predictions: Full guide to the season-ending World Tour Finals live from London’s O2 Arena

Hannah Wilks 18 Nov 2017
  • Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal lead the field at the last big men's tennis event of the year, the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals
  • ATP World Tour Finals tennis is live from London's O2 Arena from 12-19 November
  • Watch and bet on tennis live from London at Unibet > live streaming > tennis
Six-time champion Roger Federer leads the field at the 2017 Nitto ATP World Tour Finals, live from London's O2 Arena from 12-19 November (Photo by Julian Finney/Getty Images)

The 2017 ATP World Tour Finals are live from London’s O2 Arena from 12-19 November and has a full guide to the tournament featuring the best young stars of men’s tennis, including outright betting tips, predictions and live streaming links to watch matches online. 

Day 8: Tips for Sunday 19 November - final day!

Grigor Dimitrov (6) vs David Goffin (7), 6pm GMT
For the second time in a week, David Goffin will face Grigor Dimitrov at London's O2 Arena off the back of the biggest win of his career - and while Wednesday's match was a devastating defeat for the Belgian, he will be hoping to do better in Sunday's final.

Both players are in utterly uncharted territory as they face off for the title at the Nitto ATP Finals, the season-ending tournament which constitutes undoubtedly the fifth biggest title in men's tennis behind the four Grand Slams, and the stakes are immense - a win here could potentially be career-defining for either the unassuming, fleet-footed Goffin or Dimitrov, for so long hyped as a major future star and then labelled an underachiever.

Coming into this tournament, I thought Goffin's injured knee and the fact that he needed to conserve some energy, physical and emotional, for the Davis Cup final against France would mitigate severely against his chances. Instead the Belgian has had the best week of his career. Having beaten Novak Djokovic earlier this year, Goffin has now become just the sixth player to beat both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer at the same event - in both cases doing so in three sets. Nadal was undeniably injured, and there's no point in pretending that Federer was exactly playing his best, but the tennis Goffin produced in the second and third sets in Saturday's semifinal - flawless returning, consistent and relentless depth off both wings, a willingness to attack and dictate and above all, utter nervelessness in the face of trying to beat his idol - was among the best he's ever played. 

Would the same formula be as effective against Grigor Dimitrov on Sunday? Possibly, even though Dimitrov owns a record against Goffin that is almost as impressive as Federer's was - he is 7-1 against the Belgian. Dimitrov served pretty effectively on Saturday himself, outlasting Jack Sock in a fiery three-set tussle that had a lot to do with nerves, and he also kept a pretty cool head in the third set under severe provocation. Moreover, he's found a great balance between attacking and defending this week - something that Federer never did. 

Dimitrov beat Goffin 6-0, 6-2 in the round robin, in a match that was half about Goffin's emotional flatness and half about Dimitrov's tremendous performance. I don't think it will be as one-sided on Sunday, because I don't think Dimitrov can swing and flow as freely with as much on the line. But even on this relatively slow indoor court, the victory should be there for the more attacking player. Dimitrov will end the year inside the world's top 3 with Federer and Nadal, and I think he'll beat the man who beat both of them to do it. 

Previous Tips Results

Outright betting tips

Roger Federer is rightfully the overwhelming favourite for this title @ 4/5 at Sky Bet. Six times a champion at the World Tour Finals, Federer may not have won the title since 2011 but he has featured in the final three of the past four years he’s played the event and he has still only lost four matches in the entirety of 2017 – only one of them to a player who joins him in London.

Moreover, while there are injury concerns for Federer – he pulled out of the Paris Masters entirely due to a back issue – that withdrawal seemed much more like a player taking precautions to ensure he can perform at his best in London rather than being actually physically unable to play.

Federer’s draw in London isn’t the easiest, but it isn’t the worst either. A combined 12-3 against the rest of his group, two of whom – Alexander Zverev and Jack Sock – are making their debut at the World Tour Finals which is not always an easy event for first-timers, Federer will surely be the favourite in every match he plays and looks virtually guaranteed to reach the final.

What could be Federer’s toughest match-up should come against Alexander Zverev (8/1 @ Ladbrokes), who is definitely a player to keep an eye on this week. Zverev has beaten Federer twice, including in their only hard-court match which took place in Montreal in August, and the young German has quickly established himself with two Masters 1000 Series titles in 2017 as by far the best of the ‘Next Gen’ (to the extent that he’s playing the ATP World Tour Finals and not this week’s Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan, although Zverev did play an exhibition there). Zverev’s results haven’t been great since winning that Canada Masters title, but the German hasn’t been losing to bad players in recent weeks – his last four defeats were to Juan Martin del Potro, Nick Kyrgios, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Robin Haase in Paris – and he has two ATP World Tour titles on indoor hard courts to his name.

Even if Zverev can’t beat Federer, he still has a winning record against Marin Cilic and is 1-1 vs Jack Sock. It’s not really clear how much to expect from Sock (22/1 @ Betfair), who qualified at the very last minute and in the most surprising circumstances by winning the Rolex Paris Masters title, and the undeniably powerful American looks to me like he’s going to find himself out of his depth in London. 

What of Cilic (14/1 @ Betfred)? This is the Croatian’s third outing at the World Tour Finals, and neither of the previous ones went well – he went 0-3 in 2014 and 1-2 in 2016. But there were mitigating circumstances in both cases – he was injured in 2014 and had one eye on the Davis Cup final in 2016. Cilic has made the semifinals in three of the last four tournaments he’s played (he lost in the Paris quarterfinals to Benneteau) and also hasn’t overplayed since the US Open. His problem is that his head-to-head vs Federer is a fairly dire 1-7, so he’ll likely need to beat Zverev and Sock to make the semifinals – and he has a losing record against both. If Sock performs as badly as I think he will, I don’t think this will be a problem for Cilic to get his first win, but he’s lost his last three against Zverev and Federer and Zverev as the two semifinalists looks a likely bet in Group Boris Becker.

The big question in the other group, and when considering the tournament as a whole, is the state of top seed Rafael Nadal’s knees. There have been conflicting reports following Nadal’s withdrawal from the Paris Masters after two matches, some positive, some very negative; if he does play, sensational as his season has been, it’s difficult to see him playing and winning the five matches it would take to claim the title, given that he couldn’t make it through three matches in Paris despite having had two weeks off since his last event.

The vulnerability is real, in Nadal’s case, and it makes it very hard to see him winning the tournament – but that’s not to say he might not get out of his group. A combined 17-3 against the other three players in ‘Group Pete Sampras’, Nadal (5/2 @ Paddy Power) is traditionally most vulnerable to aggressive players playing out-and-out attacking tennis, often of the powerhouse variety. And he’s been lucky enough with the draw that those players in the Nitto ATP World Tour Finals field who do fit that mould have landed in the other group.

Grigor Dimitrov (12/1 @bwin) is the closest thing to that type of player in the Sampras group, and to my eyes the Bulgarian looks like an excellent candidate to reach the semifinals on his debut at the O2. Dimitrov’s head-to-head against Nadal is a damning 1-10, but he’s pushed Nadal the distance in all three of their meetings so far in 2017, and should relish the chance to face the Spanish player when he’s physically compromised. 

Dimitrov also has a losing record against the muscular tennis of Dominic Thiem, but the Austrian has won just two matches in his last five events and looks, it’s safe to say, utterly exhausted after the rigours of his season. Opportunity is there for Thiem (25/1 @ Betfred), who has recorded multiple victories over every other player in the group (although he still trails Nadal 2-5 and Goffin 3-7 in the overall head-to-head) but he’s shown absolutely no sign that he’s in physical shape to take advantage of it. 

So Dimitrov certainly would seem to have the opportunity to level up his head-to-head with Thiem and perhaps even to score a rare win against Nadal, and his head-to-head against Goffin is a dominant 6-1 (although it’s worth noting Goffin did beat him in their last indoor match). There’s definitely a clear path to the semifinals for the Bulgarian – but who will join him?

With Thiem’s poor form, it would seem to be down to Goffin (25/1 @ Boyle Sports) to knock Nadal (if he is fit to play) out of the second semifinal spot. The Belgian has had some dodgy results since winning his second title of the year in Tokyo – defeats to Stefanos Tsitsipas in Antwerp, Gilles Simon in Shanghai and Julien Benneteau in Paris among them – and also has real injury concerns which could hamper him on his ATP World Tour Finals debut, not to mention that he has to keep something in reserve for the Davis Cup final in which he’ll lead Belgium against France. Under the circumstances, it doesn’t look good for Goffin and unless Thiem finds some form from somewhere and steps up to perform, it looks like Nadal – should he be able to play – should be able to get through this group even if not 100% fit.

Nadal’s journey should end in the semifinals, however – certainly if he plays Federer, and quite probably even if he faces whoever else comes out of the Becker group, likely Zverev or possibly Cilic. Federer beating a tired Dimitrov or Zverev in the final looks like by far the most likely eventuality and as dull as it is to once more pick the GOAT to win a big title in 2017, it’s very hard to bet against him.

ATP World Tour Finals 2017 singles draw

Head-to-head records for Group Boris Becker at the 2017 ATP World Tour Finals

vs Federervs Zverevvs Cilicvs SockCombined
Roger Federer-2-27-13-012-3
Alexander Zverev2-2-3-11-16-4
Marin Cilic1-71-3-0-22-12
Jack Sock0-31-12-003-4

Head-to-head records for Group Pete Sampras at the 2017 ATP World Tour Finals

vs Nadalvs Thiemvs Dimitrovvs GoffinCombined
Rafael Nadal-5-210-12-017-3
Dominic Thiem2-5-2-13-77-13
Grigor Dimitrov1-101-2-6-18-13
David Goffin0-27-31-6-8-11

Betting guide

Betting on the ATP World Tour Finals is very straight-forward. Every major bookmaker will offer outright odds, bets on who will each quarter and then a wide range of match betting options. To find the various markets available, simply go to the bookmaker of your choice and head to the TENNIS menu, which will either be found via a direct link on the homepage or in the A-Z menu. Once there simply scroll through the different options and find the bet of your choice.

If you want to place accumulator bets on matches then simply click on the odds for each player and they will automatically be added to your betting slip. Once you have made your selections, click on the slip and all available multiple options will be displayed. Input your stake and place your bets.

Outright Winner Bets

All bookmakers will offer odds on the outright winner of the ATP World Tour finals. This will be available throughout the tournament and the odds will be updated after each match. Some firms even offer outright betting while matches are in play. 

The Each-way terms on this bet are 1/3 odds for 1,2 places (reaching the final). This is different from a normal tournament, which would be 1/2 odds for reaching the final but with only eight players it is understandable.

Group Winner Bets

The other ante-post bet which is hugely popular in the ATP World Tour Finals is the Group Winner and it's another which is pretty easy to explain. Simply put, it is backing your chosen player to top their four man section in the round robin stage. The bet will be settled on whoever goes through as the winner, using the ATP's tie-break criteria if two or more players finish level on points.

Match Betting

All bookmakers will offer odds on individual match winners and it is simply a case of backing who you think will win the match.

Correct Score Betting

This is as simple as it seems, you bet on the final score in the match. There are four options; 2-0, 2-1, 1-2 and 0-2 and the bookmaker will offer odds on each. If you are correct then you win your bet.

Game Handicap Betting

Most bookmakers will offer game handicap betting on Paris Masters matches. This is where you don't bet on a player to win the match but attempt to predict by how many games they will win. The bookmakers set a predicted game line to give both players odds of around even money and then you make your selection on whether the line is correct or not. This is a good bet to place when there are strong favourites in a match. Andy Murray will, for example, be a big favourite to win his group matches but by backing the world number one to cover a three or four game handicap you can get odds around even on a Murray win. If, however, you think he will be pushed but you're not convinced that his opponent will win then you can bet the other player on the + handicap.

Total Games Betting

Similar to the handicap, the bookmaker will set a line on how many games there will be in a match. The odds will then be roughly even money on either side of the line and punters have to decide whether there will be more or less than the amount of games predicted. A standard line for a hot favourite may be around 20 games, which would mean a 6-4, 6-4 win. If you think that there will be more than that (in a match where there are big servers for example) then you can bet on the Over. If you think there will be less then you can back Under. It doesn't matter who wins the match, simply how many games are played.

In-Play Betting

All bookmakers now offer in-play betting and the number of markets vary depending on the firm. bet365 tend to have the most and are quickest to update due to their live streaming technology, which is often ahead of the TV pictures. They will offer markets ranging from match winner to next point and the odds will reflect how the match is panning out. There are, however, often opportunities for tennis experts to read the game better than the traders and so to make a profit in-play.

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2017 Nitto ATP World Tour Finals betting guide, tips & predictions: Full guide to the season-ending World Tour Finals live from London’s O2 Arena

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