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Can anyone deny Hermosa over one mile? Get 2019 Royal Ascot Day 4 tips

Hermosa (credit:PA Wire/PA Wire/PA Images)

Our expert takes a look through the ante-post betting for the feature races on day three at Royal Ascot and provides readers with his tips for Friday 21st June

Attendees on day four at Royal Ascot will be in for a real treat, with the Commonwealth Cup and the Coronation Stakes headlining a thrilling afternoon of flat racing. Before we reach that Group One double-header, there’s a fascinating renewal of the King Edward VII Stakes to take in, with several of the beaten horses in this year’s Derby set to clash once again.

Our expert has taken a look through the ante-post betting for these three prestigious races and provided readers with his ante-post tips.

2019 Royal Ascot Day Three Tips

3:05pm King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) 1m4f

Private Secretary skipped the Derby to prepare for Royal Ascot and John Gosden’s colt was much better value for his Cocked Hat Stakes victory than the winning margin suggests. He’s sure to garner support, but the fact that Aidan O’Brien has been so dominant with his Derby colts this season – saddling six of the first eight passed the post at Epsom – I think it would be foolish not to back one of his runners here.

Anthony Van Dyck and Sir Dragonet look set to lock horns again in the Irish Derby, with that race also an option for Broome. The one who seems most likely to enter this Group Two is JAPAN (5/1 Paddy Power), who finished the Derby stronger than any other horse and could be very hard to beat at Ascot.

O’Brien expected Japan to take a big step forward after disappointing on his reappearance in the Derby. Wayne Lordan tracked Broome’s move through around the outside of the pack and, with a late charge reminiscent of that his former stablemate Wings Of Eagles produced in the Derby two years previous, almost snatched Derby glory from right under Anthony Van Dyck’s nose.

My first thought after the Derby was that Japan looks the ideal type for the St Leger. Before that inevitable step up in trip, a visit to Royal Ascot seems in order and it will take a fine performance to deny Japan victory.

Given the likelihood that a large field will take part in this year’s King Edward, an each-way punt looks a profitable ploy. Circus Maximus crossed the line sixth in the Derby and has to be respected, as does Line Of Duty if there’s a little extra give in the ground. One who looks open to plenty of improvement is EAGLES BY DAY (25/1 Betfair) and I think he’s worthy of a small wager at 25/1.

Michael Bell’s colt entered the Lingfield Derby Trial on the back of a powerful maiden triumph at Salisbury, where he sauntered to a seven length triumph over a subsequent winner. Danny Tudhope looked to be minding his mount for much of the race at Lingfield, but was perfectly positioned to track Anthony Van Dyck’s winning move, only to find very little in the final two furlongs

Eagles By Day travelled comfortably for much of the race and just looked to be bogged down by the soft going in the closing stages. I expect this son of Sea The Stars will take a big step forward for that educational run and conditions at Ascot should be much more suitable.

Main Bet – JAPAN (5/1 Paddy Power)
Next Best – EAGLES BY DAY e/w (25/1 Betfair)

3:40pm Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (British Champions Series) 6f

I always thought last season that Ten Sovereigns was a speed merchant, so it’s no surprise to see Aidan O’Brien drop his colt back down in trip after a decent fifth in the Guineas. O’Brien’s colt jumped to the head of the betting after my initial fancy, Calyx was beaten and then ruled out of Ascot. Ten Sovereigns could be the class act in the field, but after most of the protagonists at the head of the market flopped in last year’s edition, I’m keen to take the market leader on with an each-way punt or two. 

Looking further down the betting, the names of Group Ones winners like Advertise and Fairyland stand out, as both look to recover from poor runs in Classics. Lady Kaya, on the other hand, is dropping down in distance after a solid second behind Hermosa in the 1000 Guineas and Sheila Lavery won’t have made the decision lightly.

Eqtidaar carried Hamdan Al Maktoum’s colours to a surprise victory in this race 12 months ago and the superstar owner will have high hopes of winning the Commonwealth Cup again. Khaadem is an improving sprinter who cannot be overlooked. JASH (8/1 Ladbrokes), however, is little further along the progression scale than his fellow silk-bearer and I’m keen to follow Simon Crisford’s charge throughout the upcoming season.

Following two excellent novice victories, Jash bounded out of the dip at Newmarket and pushed Ten Sovereigns all the way to the line in the Middle Park Stakes. Crisford upped his charge up to seven furlongs on his reappearance, but Jash didn’t seem entirely at ease over that longer trip, grinding out a narrow victory in the Listed King Charles II Stakes at Newmarket.

Dropping back in trip could be ideal for this talented colt and I doubt he will be flustered by the hustle and bustle of the Commonwealth Cup. Jash will be my main bet.

Main Bet – JASH e/w (8/1 Ladbrokes)
Next Best – LADY KAYA e/w (9/1 William Hill)

4:20pm (Rnd) Coronation Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) (Fillies) 1m

Jubiloso looked a cut above her rivals when winning at Newbury and looks a Grouped winner in the making. Fellow unbeaten filly, Dream Castle travels to England for the first time on the back of a solid victory in the French Guineas and she has to be respected. Both, however, have never experienced a race like this before and will likely be playing catch-up to this season’s outstanding three-year-old.

The Prix de Diane had been talked about as HERMOSA’S (11/8 Paddy Power) next stop this summer. Yet, it seems pointless for Aidan O’Brien to step his dual-Guineas heroine up in trip, considering he has Pink Dogwood and Fleeting for the French Oaks and when there are plenty of big prizes to be won over a mile during the summer. 

Those who thought Hermosa’s make-all victory at Newmarket was a fluke were proven wrong at the Curragh, as Ryan Moore’s mount made use of those front-running tactics again to hand her fellow fillies a sound thrashing. Hermosa has been the outstanding filly in this year’s Classic crop so far and I don’t think there’s a surprise contender who will come out of the woodwork to lower the favourite’s colours. 

Switching from straight miles to a round track will be no problem at all and the dual-Guineas winner has good form on all kinds of ground. I expect Hermosa will follow in the footsteps of Winter and Alpha Centauri and dominate the Group Ones over a mile this term. Anything above evens looks decent value.

Main Bet – HERMOSA (11/8 Paddy Power)
Next Best – MAQSAD e/w (14/1 Betfair)

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Can anyone deny Hermosa over one mile? Get 2019 Royal Ascot Day 4 tips

Our expert takes a look through the ante-post betting for the feature races on day three at Royal Ascot and provides readers with his tips for Friday 21st June

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