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2017 Fillies' Mile betting tips: 7/2 chance can produce Magical run for O'Brien at Newmarket

Leigh Copson in Horse Racing 12 Oct 2017
Magical (purple cap) can gain revenge on recent Group One conquerer Happily in Friday's feature race. (credit: GettyImages)

Brian Healy assesses the runners for Friday's big race on day one of the Cesarewitch meeting at Newmarket, the Group One Fillies' Mile.


Day one of the 2017 Cesarewitch meeting at Newmarket is spearheaded by some top-quality action in the shape of the Group One Bet365 Fillies’ Mile, which goes to post as the fourth race of the afternoon at 3.35pm.

The valuable one-mile contest over the Rowley Mile boasts a first prize in excess of £300,000 and a field of twelve runners will go to post for the classy feature race which could point the way to next seasons’ 1000 Guineas winner.

Aidan O’Brien is chasing a record-breaking haul of Group One wins in a season, and the Ballydoyle maestro launches a strong assault on this contest as he bids to win the race for a fourth straight season.

Past champions to have hailed from the O’Brien camp in the past three years see Rhododendron, Minding and Together Forever feature on the roll-call of winners, and O’Brien sends three into battle as he looks to add another Group One success to his already-impressive haul this term.

Heading his trident of classy performers is Happily (6/1, Bet365) who arrives here having won four of her six starts which include back-to-back Group Ones at the Curragh and Chantilly.

The Galileo filly is the choice of Ryan Moore from the Ballydoyle trio, and she was last seen beating Olmedo by just over one length to land the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere in what was an impressive win taking on the boys for the first time. 

That run sets the standard, and the ante-post favourite for the race will be hard to beat if reproducing that run.

Happily sets the standard on her French Group One win against the boys.


September (13/2, Ladbrokes) meanwhile won both of her first two starts at Leopardstown and Ascot, the latter in Listed company, prior to finding Magical – who is the third of the O’Brien trio for this contest – too strong in the Group Two Debutante Stakes.

Subsequently third to that rival and Happily when the latter won the Moyglare Stud, she has work to do with the leading pair on her runs behind both and MAGICAL (7/2, Paddy Power) could prove the pick of the trio despite having been beaten behind Happily in that Curragh contest.

Another Galileo filly, she impressively held off Happily when the pair clashed in the Debutante Stakes, showing plenty of determination and willingness having made all the running. It has to be said that the runner-up wasn’t given the hardest of rides, but she was forced to dig much deeper to beat Magical when the pair reopposed in the Moyglare Stud.

The tables were turned in that race, with Happily coming out on top, but she was forced to dig deep to get past Magical who showed all the tenacity she had done so in the Debutante. Subsequently fourth to Wild Illusion at Chantilly in the Prix Marcel Boussac, she endured a terrible run through the race, unable to find racing room and having to be switched time and again before getting clear all too late.

That result perhaps shouldn’t be taken at face value, and there shouldn’t be much between her and Happily again in this latest rematch of the two.

Aidan O'Brien saddles three in Friday's feature race.


Charlie Appleby has swept all before him with his juveniles this year, and the once-raced Magic Lily (8/1, William Hill) can’t be overlooked with the prospect of significant improvement following an impressive demolition job of Mystic Meg on debut at Newmarket last month.

The New Approach filly romped to an easy eight lengths success despite missing the break, and she surely would have gone into plenty of notebooks given the manner in which she quickened up when asked.

She could be anything, and open to plenty of further improvement she is respected thrust into Group One company after just one start, althought there is a suspicion that this could just be too soon for her taking such a big step.

Laurens (10/1, Bet365) was an eye-catching winner at Doncaster last month when winning the May Hill Stakes, beating Dark Rose Angel and Nyaleti – the latter reopposes – having gone close the time before at Deauville when beaten just under two lengths behind Polydream.

That rival subsequently landed the silver medal in the Prix Marcel Boussac – Magical in fourth – so the form looks good for Karl Burke’s charge who is another who needs to be taken seriously with the prospect of further improvement to come. 

Strictly on the book she doesn’t have much to find with Magical, but there is a suspicion that Aidan O’Brien’s charge is better than she was able to show in that Deauville race, and Karl Burke’s Siyouni filly will need to step up again.

Laurens (white cap) created a good impression when winning a Doncaster Group Two last time.


Burke also saddles Ellthea (20/1, Paddy Power) in the race who will be chasing a hat-trick following wins at Doncaster in a handicap, and then winning the Group Three Park Stakes at Naas where she ran out a ready winner over Sizzling.

Mary Tudor, who was fourth in that race, has been beaten twice behind Magical this term so the second of the Burke runners will need to step up again if she’s to land this valuable prize.

Twice-raced French challenger Efaadah (25/1, Paddy Power) represents the Freddy Head team, and the Dansili filly won on debut at Deauville back in August, beating Soustraction. 

However, she came up short subsequently behind the same rival in softer ground at Chantilly the following month when runner-up to that rival in the Prix d’Aumale, and another forward step will be required if she’s to win this.

However, given connections and the decision to send her across the Channel to contest this race suggests she could be a big player, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see her go well.

Having won on debut at Salisbury in June, Nyaleti (25/1, Bet365) went into plenty of notebooks as one to follow following an enterprising run in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot where having set a blistering pace she was collared late by September.

Mark Johnston’s charge has stood plenty of racing since, finding only Clemmie too strong on the July Course here in the Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes before resuming winning ways at Ascot in the Group Three Juddmonte Stakes.

Beaten on all three subsequent starts, including a half-length defeat behind Laurens at Doncaster, she spurned what looked a good opportunity to get back to winning ways in the Rockfel Stakes last month, only to be beaten behind Juliet Capulet.

She is likely to give her running again, but she looks held in this company, and it would be a surprise if she were to prove good enough to bounce back with a win upped again in grade.

Nyaleti can give a good account, but she may again find a couple too good.



Muirin (33/1, Bet365) travels over from Ireland having been beaten six lengths behind Happily at the Curragh in the Moyglare Stud Stakes; Ed Lynam’s charge had previously won at the Curragh, beating Sizzling.

That rival was subsequently beaten behind Laurens at Doncaster, and Ellthea at Naas so a line through that O’Brien runners suggests Ed Lynam’s Born To Sea filly has plenty on his plate; while Quivery (33/1, William Hill) won twice in novice company prior to being beaten into fourth behind Billesdon Brook at Goodwood when tried in a Group Three.

The Violence filly will need to step up markedly on that form, although the extra furlong here could suit and she remains with potential. While she is unlikely to trouble the principals, she can give a good account.

Musical Art (50/1, Ladbrokes) won on debut at Newbury, but has since come up well short behind both Nyaleti at Ascot, and also Polydream at Deauville and Paul Cole’s Dutch Art filly looks outclassed taking a big step into Group One company; while Peter Chapple-Hyam’s Lubinka (100/1, William Hill) hasn’t found the winners’ enclosure in her two starts to date in novice company, and it is hard to imagine the Mastercraftsman filly is unlikely to break her duck thrust into a race at this level.


VERDICT


The progressive home-trained pair of Laurens and Magic Lily are likely to offer stiff resistance to another Aidan O’Brien-trained onslaught which will be headed up by recent Group One scorer Happily who is the choice of Ryan Moore.

However, it could pay to side with MAGICAL (7/2, Paddy Power) who runs in the same colours, and the Galileo filly can be considered a shade unfortunate that she didn’t finish closer than she did in the Prix Marcel Boussac where she endured all sorts of trouble in running.

A Cork winner in August, she subsequently beat Happily to win the Group Two Debutante Stakes at the Curragh prior to making that rival pull out all the stops to land the first of her two Group One wins, going down by just a head behind the ante-post leader.

Her latest fourth was a better run than the result suggests given the trouble she found herself in, and she can bounce back here where she could give Happily plenty to think about.

2017 BET365 FILLIES’ MILE SELECTION – MAGICAL (7/2, Paddy Power)


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2017 Fillies' Mile betting tips: 7/2 chance can produce Magical run for O'Brien at Newmarket

Brian Healy assesses the runners for Friday's big race on day one of the Cesarewitch meeting at Newmarket, the Group One Fillies' Mile.

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