Novak Djokovic faces Rafael Nadal in the China Open final in Beijing on Sunday and it’s another chance for the Serb to exert his dominance over a player who is now barely even considered a rival.
Novak Djokovic claimed yet another comfortable win over David Ferrer on Saturday to reach his sixth Beijing Open final. The Serb has never lost a match in the Chinese capital and he’s not going to lose his first one against Rafael Nadal in Sunday’s final.
It’s doubtful whether Nadal will even manage to get more than the five games won by Ferrer (which is the most any player has taken from Djokovic all week). The Spaniard may be up to eighth in the world, and he may make the ATP World Tour Finals, but it’s not the same Nadal that won 14 Grand Slams and 27 Masters titles.
This year is the first that the 28-year-old has not won any of those tournaments and it’s by far the worst of Nadal’s career. He’s lost a total of 15 matches, which is bad, but more than that is the fact that he has been beaten by players not even in the top 10. Fabio Fognini, Dustin Brown, Feliciano Lopez, Alexander Dolgopolov and Fernando Verdasco have all beaten Nadal this season and it seems that whenever he’s up against a player with a weapon he can’t deal with it.
That’s a bad omen for a meeting with Novak Djokovic, whose whole game is a weapon. The Serb seems to have no weaknesses at the moment and he arguably deserves more recognition than he has received for his three Grand Slams (plus French Open final defeat) and five Masters titles.
Despite the fact that Djokovic has swept all before him, he’s only actually beaten Nadal twice in 2015. That’s more down to the fact that Nadal hasn’t been getting far enough in tournaments to meet the number one seed but when they have played it’s been easy for Djokovic. He won 6-3, 6-3 in Monte Carlo and then achieved a more comprehensive 7-5, 6-3, 6-1 win at the French Open. It could be an even wider margin on Sunday in Beijing, where the courts favour the Serb more than either of the other two venues.
It’s just 1/9 that Djokovic wins Sunday's final and that's not going to appeal to many other than the biggest of big bettors but there's huge value in the 11/10 from
Sportingbet that the world number one covers a 5.5 game handicap. Djokovic not only cleared this line in his two wins over Nadal in 2015 but he's also sailed past it in every one of his wins in Beijing. He beat Isner 6-2, 6-2 and Ferrer 6-2, 6-3, on current form both of those players pose more of a test than Nadal, who may end up on the end of a bit of a humiliation in China's capital.
Recommendation
Back Novak Djokovic (-5.5 Games) @11/10 with
Sportingbet