The man to replace Suarez will be Sebastián Abreu, and the giant hitman is 14/1 to score a header in this match.
The first team into the World Cup Final will be confirmed on Tuesday night when Uruguay, the last of the South American contingent left in the competition, take on a Dutch side who dumped out Brazil in the quarter-finals.
Uruguay reached this semi-final in the most controversial of circumstances, Luis Suarez’s goal line handball denying Ghana a certain goal right at the end of extra time, and after Asamoah Gyan missed the resulting penalty, his pitch-side celebrations were hard to stomach for Ghana and the whole African continent.
With his team-mates having won through on a penalty shootout, Suarez will now be banned for his country’s first World Cup semi-final for 40 years, and that’s a big blow for a side whose campaign has been built on a counter-attacking 4-3-3 formation. Even so, it is still something of a surprise to see Uruguay as big as 11/2 at Blue Square to win in 90 minutes, while the draw is 5/2 and Holland are 8/13 favourites.
Another reason for the big price about the Uruguayans is a suspension for full back Jorge Fucile of Porto, one of their outstanding performers in their run to this semi-final, and he will be a big miss for his side. Also struggling with injury is skipper and inspirational centre back Diego Lugano, and you just feel that the lack of depth in the squad may catch up with them here – Holland to qualify at 3/10 is bound to be a popular bet.
If Uruguay are to persist with the 3-pronged attack that has served them so well so far in this tournament, the man to replace Suarez will be Sebastián Abreu, the veteran striker who coolly chipped home the winning penalty against Ghana. The Botafogo man has 26 goals from 58 international appearances – a better strike rate than Diego Forlan’s – and Blue Square’s 3/1 about him to score at any time in the 90 minutes could be a shrewd punt. The giant hitman is 14/1 to score a header, another bet that should offer a really good run for your money.
The undoubted star of the show for the South Americans is Diego Forlan, the man whose brilliant free kick levelled the game against Ghana, and if his side are to progress past Holland and into the final, it surely needs another big performance from the Atletico Madrid man. Forlan is 2/1 to score in this match, 10/1 to score from outside the box again, and 14/1 to score 2 or more goals.
Holland’s campaign has been built on a combination of solid defending and incisive play going forward, a far cry from their massively entertaining, but ultimately flawed approach during Euro 2008 where they fell at the quarter-final stage. A far more pragmatic system has seen them concede just 3 goals in 5 matches – all of which they have won – so Holland to keep a clean sheet is bound to be a popular choice at 4/5.
Right back Gregory Van Der Wiel and holding midfielder Nigel de Jong have both had a major part to play in those decent defensive displays so far, though both players were booked against Brazil and will have to sit this one out. I’d suggest that might upset the Dutch system somewhat, and personally I’d rather back the Goal Crazy – that’s both teams to score – at 21/20 than go for the Dutch clean sheet.
Arjen Robben didn’t start any of his country’s group matches, but he was the inspiration for the side against Slovakia – so much so that the Slovakian coach Vladimir Weiss described him as a genius – and after another fine display in that quarter-final win over Brazil, he’ll take some stopping here. The former Chelsea winger is 6/4 to score in the match, and a very tempting 16/1 to be fouled for a penalty – something that is always on the cards with such a talented dribbler.
Having trailed Brazil at half time in their quarter-final, it was Wesley Sneijder whose free kick was headed into his own net by Felipe Melo before the Inter man added the winner 15 minutes later, and he really is the heartbeat of this team. A 7/4 shot to score at any time here, I’d rather back the 7/2 about him to be man of the match considering his current form has seen him installed as 3/1 second favourite for Player of the Tournament.
My idea for a Correct Score in this match would probably be 2-1 to Holland, a 15/2 shot with Blue Square, while for a long shot you could do worse than Diego Forlan to score first and Holland to win 2-1, which pays 70/1.