Germany should be considered favourites to beat Spain

The bookmakers make Spain the 17/10 (Bwin) favourites to beat Germany in Wednesday’s World Cup 2010 semi-finals,  but based on performances so far in South Africa that doesn’t seem right.

Germany, who are 19/10 with WilliamHill, have been the best team in the tournament so far, comfortably beating England and Argentina in the knock-out stages and scoring goals for fun.

Spain, by contrast, have laboured to all of their victories and without David Villa (9/2, Bwin) who has scored five of the six Spanish goals in South Africa, it is conceivable that Vicente Del Bosque’s side could have exited the competition in the group stages.

Spain were unconvincing against Paraguay in the last round and were frequently caught out on the break by the South Americans. Gerrard Pique has looked far from assured in the centre of defence and the only thing that defensive midfielder Sergio Busquets adds to the side is a slightly unsavoury character.

With Bastian Schweinsteiger (20/1, Coral) pulling the strings in midfield and creating openings for Lukas Podolski (8/1, SkyBet) and Miroslav Klose (13/2, SkyBet) the Germans are more than capable of scoring against Spain and it would be a huge surprise if they didn’t breach the Spanish defence at least once on Wednesday.

That means Spain will have to score twice to win and if Villa can be stopped, it is difficult to see where the goals will come from. Fernando Torres (13/2, Bwin) is, of course, a huge talent but the Liverpool striker has clearly not recovered from a knee injury and he looks a shadow of the player that terrorises Premier League defences week in week out. Andre Iniesta (14/1, Bet365) looks good in midfield but his finishing so far, a well taken goal against Chile apart, has been poor.

Germany’s defence completely nullified the threat of Argentina’s attack, which is stronger than Spain’s and although they are unlikely to enjoy the same space on the break that they did against Argentina and England, they can still win the game in 90-minutes, possibly without conceding (4/1, VictorChandler).

For those who want a bit of insurance against a draw, it is even-money (SkyBet) that Germany simply qualify for the World Cup final and that is an excellent bit of value.

Recommendations

To Qualify – Germany (Evens, SkyBet)
Win Market – Germany (19/10, WilliamHill)