Diaz (2.00 to win) has become one of the top welterweights on the planet since leaving the UFC after a November 2006 contest, embarking on a 10-fight win streak while competing for Japan-based promotion DREAM, the now-defunct EliteXC and, of course, Strikeforce. Diaz captured the Strikeforce welterweight title by beating Marius Zaromskis in January 2010 and went on to successfully defend the belt against KJ Noons, Evangelista Santos and Paul Daley.

That win over Daley, coupled with Zuffa’s purchase of Strikeforce, led to talk of a super-fight between 170lbs Strikeforce king Diaz and UFC welterweight champion Georges St-Pierre, considered one of the top three fighters in MMA today. That fight was subsequently announced by the UFC but Diaz later found himself pulled from the main event after failing to attend a press conference to promoted the contest. The 28-year-old was replaced by Carlos Condit and thrown into a contest with former UFC welterweight and lightweight champion Penn, with an injury to GSP later thrusting this bout into the main event slot.

All eyes are now on the Stockton bad boy, but can Penn (1.75 to win) spoil Diaz’s return to the biggest stage in mixed martial arts?

Southpaw Diaz holds a four-inch reach advantage and his “pitter-patter” striking style has proved effective during stand-up exchanges with previous opponents. While his strikes lack venom, the sheer volume he throws makes life uncomfortable for the other fighter and wears them down, with his TKO win over Daley evidence of that. However, Penn is no slouch on his feet, quite rightly considered one of the best boxers in the sport with his great accuracy and heavy hands. That could spell trouble for Diaz who was dropped twice in his last outing against heavy-handed British striker Daley.

Perhaps Diaz should take the fight to the floor and make the most of the skills that earned him a Gracie jiu jitsu black belt? The catch is Penn has never tapped out in his career and his own jiu jitsu skills are lauded, with his incredible ability to use his arms like legs still leaving fans amazed to this day.

So how does this fight go down then? First of all you will need to get comfortable in your chair because this bout is going the full 15 minutes and the judges will be called upon. Diaz will throw a high volume of punches and kicks to push the pace and keep Penn on the back foot, with the former two-weight champion needing to once again prove that concerns over his cardio are a thing of the past. Penn’s best opportunity to win this fight will come with his wrestling. Takedowns often prove to be the clinching factor in a bout that goes the distance and the statistics prove Penn is superior in the wrestling department. If Penn can land some good shots and score takedowns at crucial points in all three rounds, he could make it a miserable return to the big stage for Diaz.