Can 7/2 Rua end Machida's unbeaten streak tonight in the main event at UFC 104?
Lyoto 'The Dragon' Machida is odds-on to successfully retain his UFC Light Heavyweight championship in the main event at UFC 104 tonight in Los Angeles, California.
The undefeated Machida takes on Mauricio 'Shogun' Rua, with Rua looking to return to the kind of form that took him to the top with PRIDE.
Machida, a best price 1/4 with bet365 to win tonight at the Staples Center, is unbeaten in his 15 professional fights to date but faces his toughest challenge to date against Rua, who arguably has nothing to lose.
Win or lose, Shogun, available at 7/2 with Sky Bet, will remain one of the most exciting light heavyweights in MMA.
The 27-year-old is an aggressive fighter with tons of power. With a strong Muay Thai background, the Brazilian looked unbeatable when fighting in PRIDE.
But when he signed with the UFC, his Octagon debut failed to live up to expectations as he lost via submission to Forrest Griffin. Rua later blamed his preparations, citing recent knee surgery and the inability to train properly, but the fight was remembered for him looking sluggish as he lost via rear naked choke.
Ahead of tonight's main event, Rua said of that defeat: "The knee injuries, two surgeries back to back, were a dark time in my life. There were times when it was very bad for me, especially when I had another surgery right as I wanted to start training again. But things happen in life and you have to come through them stronger."
That loss was followed up by a TKO win over Mark Coleman although again, there were questions over his ability - something Rua acknowledges.
"I’ve not shown the best of myself in the UFC yet, but this is the perfect time to do that," he admitted. "I am 100 percent, I am healthy."
Last time out, Shogun shows flashes of brilliance as he beat Chuck Liddell via first round TKO after a huge hook left 'The Iceman' looking anything but cool. Rua is a massive 20/1 with Paddy Power to win in the first round against Machida and although that likely won't happen, should Rua's win over Liddell is a sign that he is back to his best, then the unbeaten Machida will have to bring his A-game tonight.
Machida, who is fast becoming one of the most dominant fighters not just in UFC history, but in MMA history, has answered his critics who voiced concerns over his ability to finish a fight off.
Bouts early in the 31-year-old's career often went to the judges but last time out he impressed when making Rashad Evans look like a very average fighter when he beat the life out of the Ultimate Fighter 10 coach in round two via KO. Prior to that, the Brazilian made short work of compatriot Thiago Silva when he won via KO in the first round.
Machida is 1.52 with Betfair (8/15) to win by either KO or TKO tonight in California and although that may be too short for some to back, unless Rua causes an upset, it is hard to see how else this fight will end.
Both fighters have strong ground games, but Machida will benefit from Rua's agreessive standup style. Rua will want to keep the fight standing but Lyoto will look to capitalise on this with counter punches and although Rua is the more powerful of the two, Machida has a definite speed advantage.
The 2/9 offered by Paddy Power on tonight's main event not going the distance looks too short and Rua really should give Machida a much tougher fight than Rashad Evans was capable of. But even if Rua is back in the kind of form that made him a star in PRIDE, he may not have enough to end Machida's unbeaten streak.
Recommended bets:
Machida to win via KO/TKO - 1.52 Betfair
Machida to win in Round Three - 6/1 Paddy Power