Cain Velasquez v Ben Rothwell tips

- 24 Oct 2009

Cain Velasquez meets Ben Rothwell in a Heavyweight bout at UFC 104 with the winner almost certainly going on to face the winner of the Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin Heavyweight title fight scheduled for UFC 106.

Undefeated prospect Cain Velasquez is the odds-on favourite to be victorious at Los Angeles' Staples Center on Saturday night, priced at time of writing no better than the 1/3 available with bet365.

Velasquez is a true powerhouse. He possessing a ton of punching power and like current champ Lesnar has a strong amateur wrestling background.

The 27-year-old won his first five professional fights via TKO, with only one of those bouts going past the first round. That makes the 1.81 (4/5) currently available with Betfair for a Velasquez win via KO or TKO a very attractive bet.

Velasquez faces an opponent in Rothwell who is far more experienced. The Kenosha, Washington native has a 30-6 professional record and is a well-rounded Heavyweight fighter.

Although he doesn't really excel in one particularly area, the former IFL champion has a solid standup game as well as good wrestling and submission. Victor Chandler offer 11/4 on the 28-year-old beating Velasquez and although many believe Rothwell will be beaten on Saturday night, at that price he is certainly worth an interest.

Velasquez has the upper hand when it comes to raw power, but Rothwell has the advantage when it comes to technical ability.

Also, while Velasquez may have better wrestling, Rothwell's ground game is overall superior. Given that Velasquez's submission defence has never really been tested, should Rothwell capitalise on this, the 10/1 Paddy Power offer on Rothwell winning via submission could become a great bet.

Overall it is a tough fight to call. We don't believe Velasquez will cruise to victory as some are predicting. Paddy Power offer 9/2 on Velasquez winning in the first round, 5/1 on a round two win and 11/2 on a third round victory. Rothwell is 8/1 in each of the rounds to win with the same firm.

Although Velasquez is probably deserving of his favourite status, the gulf in the betting is way too large for us to write Rothwell off on Saturday night and as potentially great as Velasquez is, that 11/4 price available on Rothwell just looks too good to miss, with a saver on Velasquez to win via TKO.

Recommended bets:
Ben Rothwell to win - 11/4 Victor Chandler
Fight to go the distance - 6/4 Paddy Power
Rothwell to win via submission - 10/1 Paddy Power
Velasquez to win via KO/TKO - 1.81 Betfair









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