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US Open 2009 tips - Fernando Gonzalez top pick

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You have to like the price on one of the tours more dangerous underdogs.

A couple weeks ago Fernando Gonzalez pulled out of his match in Cincinnati against Tomas Berdych, immediately after dropping the first set.  It has to be said that during the match, Gonzalez seemed fine physically although mentally you had to wonder if he was in the match.  With the loss, his odds in the futures market for the US Open drifted quite severely, something that actually makes him a good long shot pick.

With bet365 for example, Gonzalez was +5000 (50/1) for most of the time post-Wimbledon.  Now he is +10000 (100/1), but if he gives a spirited effort in Flushing Meadows, which can be expected, his price might be more accurate at about +3000 (30/1).

Gonzalez is ranked 11th on tour and he is in Nadal's quarter along with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.  Surprisingly, Gonzalez and Tsonga have never played one another but they are somewhat similar players: both are excellent players on tour, that have yet to win the big Grand Slam title though they've knocked on the door.  Gonzalez does have much more power than Tsonga and if he, Gonzalez, duplicates his French Open effort than all players in his path are at risk of being eliminated.

Betting on Gonzalez, who made the Aussie 2007 final, to win a Grand Slam isn't all that smart until you factor the odds in.  Where $1 wins $100 or $10 wins $1000 however, Gonzalez does look like a smart pick for a bet so small that you don't care about losing it that much.

Go to bet365 to bet on tennis futures.


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