Try to figure out what's going on with Haas.
Tommy Haas is 31 years old and he made his first appearance in a Grand Slam back in 1996 at the US Open. Since then he has only appeared in two Grand Slam semifinals, both at the Australian and both losses. His level of play in the last couple months has been a lot higher than it has been in almost 2.5 years and it's quite puzzling, especially in tennis where 31 year olds are about 4-5 years over the hill.
The head to head matchup between the two player proves that Federer is the smart pick.
Haas hasn't beaten Federer since 2002, before Federer became Federer, and lately all Haas has been good for against the Swiss Maestro is a walkover. However, last month's 2009 Roland Garros is an exception as Haas stood his ground in the round of 16 against Federer and actually held a 2-0 set advantage before losing. At the time, it looked like Federer was starting to stoop a little, but maybe that match should be viewed as Haas stepping it up instead of Federer declining (especially since Federer went on to win the Slam).
Another indicator that Haas has stepped it up was provided in Halle. He won on the grass courts there after the French Open beating Novak Djokovic in the final in a three setter that was still fairly one-sided. He beat Djokovic again in the Wimbledon quarters the other day, partly revealing that Novak himself is no longer a great bet in the futures market.
The question is has Haas stepped it up enough to justify calling him to beat Federer in the semis as a +800 (8/1 at
Bet365) underdog. The answer is no, but it's closer than many might think. At +1100 (11/1) Haas might be worth the risk, but at +800 (8/1) he simply isn't. Haas has been good, maybe great in the last two months, but in winning he hasn't been as dominant as the other semifinalists.
A bit of a shock, Haas has only won 51.78% of the points he has played in at Wimbledon this year. That's not dominant enough play to beat the likes of Federer.
Federer is going to win tomorrow but to make his victory pay off, you'll have to wager in conjunction with another event. Instead of picking Federer at -1600 (1/16) "Name the finalists" at bet365 to get odds that are actually meaningful.
Our recommendation to pick Andy Murray and Roger Federer to square off in the finals at -250 (2/5).
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