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Roger Federer and Marcos Baghdatis will meet in the Indian Wells, California tournament on Tuesday for the right to advance to the 4th round of the BNP Paribas Open. 

Watch the game live online at bet365 > live sport > live tennis

Nobody thinks that Baghdatis has much of a chance but then Victor Hanescu, in the second round, was a +600 (6/1) underdog just to take down exactly one set and he was able to do that against the Swiss Maestro.  Baghdatis is certainly a better and more accomplished player than Hanescu so perhaps more can be expected of the man from Cyprus but that opinion is not supported by the head to head series between these two.

Here are the head to head results between the two players from the past with their most famous match being the 2006 Australian Open final:

2008 Halle Quarterfinals
Grass
Federer wins 6-4, 6-4

2007 ATP Masters Series Cincinnati Round of 16
Hard
Federer 7-6(5), 7-5

2006 Australian Open Final
Hard
Federer wins 5-7, 7-5, 6-0, 6-2

2006 Doha Quarters
Hard
Federer wins 6-4, 6-3

2005 Australian Open Round of 16
Hard
Federer wins 6-2, 6-2, 7-6(4)

2004 US Open Round of 64
Hard
Federer wins 6-2, 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-1

In the above sequence of matches the phrase "Federer wins" is quite prominent as he has gone 6-0 against Baghdatis over the years with the man from Cyprus only able to take down 2 sets in all matches played.  According to the odds below "Federer wins" is a phrase that will likely be used again, this time to describe the ATP Indian Wells third round.

Odds for the match with bet365:

Federer wins, -1200 (1/12)
Baghdatis wins, +600 (6/1)

The problem with Federer's odds in the straight up market is that they are too short to bet.  At -1200 you would really have to pound his odds hard for minimal returns and if Fed has an off day then your bankroll will end up draining.  Keep one thing in mind in this match and even for the rest of the tournament should Federer advance: he has been under-achieving in non-Grand Slam tournaments since Cincinnati 2009.  While he did take down the Aussie and while he did make the finals of the US Open, Federer has not been playing his best in the other non-Slam events and he appears to save his energy for the Slams.  Perhaps that's the reason he crushed Victor Hanescu in Melbourne in January and then had to go to a deciding set the other day against the same opponent in Indian Wells.

The first recommendation here is not to bet Federer in the straight up market at such short odds.  Truthfully odds of -500 (1/5) might have some value but odds of -1200 should be considered adversive and unworthy of risk.

Baghdatis' short term form has not been weak at all this year as he has gone 16-5 in tour matches including his straight sets victory over Arnaud Clement in Indian Wells the other day.  He, Baghdatis, contested the Dubai event in late February and he advanced all the way to the semis where he was able to take a set off of Novak Djokovic before losing.  All in all it has been a solid season so far for Baghdatis as he has victories over Lleyton Hewitt, David Ferrer, and James Blake to go along with a tour title from Sydney (250 level).

Our recommendation in this match to bet two scenarios.  Sprinkle Baghdatis to win outright at +600 (6/1) but also take Federer to win with bet365's set betting features by the precise score of 2 sets to 1.  The odds on that event are +350 (7/2).

The odds are long enough in each case to permit making the other bet so long as you weight things properly and we recommend the following:

35% of your bet at +600 (6/1; Baghdatis wins outright)
65% of your bet at +350 (7/2; Federer wins precisely 2-1)

The only way you lose here is if Federer wins in exactly two sets but if you want to go for the bigger payoff, then take a small chance on Baghdatis at 6 to 1 here out of respect for how he's been doing on tour lately and in recognition that Federer doesn't play his best tennis at events like these.

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1. Go to bet365 and sign-up or register (it's free)
2. Click on Sports > Live Streaming > Tennis
3. Watch WTA Indian Wells for free