Ivan Ljubicic can upset the home favourites at the ATP Metz Moselle Open this week.
My Davis Cup tips proved to be spot on at the weekend, with both Spain and Argentina prevailing, the latter's win over Serbia particularly welcome at a price of 3.6.
I thought that it would all be too much for Novak Djokovic and that proved to be the case, as the world number one was forced to retire in his only singles rubber against Juan Martin Del Potro.
So, with full pockets, I'll have a stab at figuring out one of this week's two ATP Tour events and the one I prefer is the indoor tournament in France.
The Moselle Open is an ATP 250 event played on indoor hard-courts and it's pretty well supported by the top French players, with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Richard Gasquet, and Michael Llodra among the top seeds on show.
Tsonga looks an uneasy favourite to me, based yet again on fitness concerns following the US Open and his awful performance on Sunday against Rafa Nadal in the Davis Cup.
Tsonga has only played this event once before, when he reached the quarters in 2007 and he looks out of sorts right now, so my money won't be going on the 3.5 about him winning here.
Gasquet also looks low on confidence after two woeful efforts on the red dirt in Cordoba, where he was thrashed by both Nadal and Fernando Verdasco.
Metz indoors is obviously a different proposition to Davis Cup against Spain on the clay, but the fact that the Gasman has played here six times and reached the final just once (back in 2004) doesn't bode well for his would-be backers at around 6.0.
Llodra should be well suited to this sort of tournament with his leftie serve and volley game and I wouldn't be too surprised if he came good this week, but he's never been past the last 16 in Metz in five tries, so perhaps the surface is a bit on the slow side for the 31-year-old.
He also plays against doubles partner Arnaud Clement first up, who has beaten Llodra in all four of their career meetings.
Tsonga and Llodra are drawn together in the top half, along with another of the betting favourites, Alexandr Dologopolov.
The Ukrainian third seed has a testing quarter, with Marcos Baghdatis and Xavier Malisse the likely opposition and indoor hard hasn't been The Dog's most productive surface so far in his relatively short career.
Dolgopolov is yet to reach a Tour level semi final indoors and at around 8.0, others are preferred this week, despite his decent showing in New York, where he reached the fourth round before losing to Djokovic. No disgrace there...
The bottom half of the draw looks the place for value though and as well as Gasquet, the major players will probably be two Germans and a Croatian.
Kohlschreiber has been well below par this year and has slipped to number 48 in the rankings as a result.
The German's hard-court swing was poor and consequently he went back to Challenger level last week and reached the final in Istanbul before losing to Denis Istomin, but it's asking a lot for him to reproduce his 2009 run to the final in Metz.
Another German, Philipp Petzschner, is not without a chance at around 34.0, as he has won before in these conditions, plus his draw looks decent, so if you're after an outsider this week, he could be the one.
But I like the chances of veteran Ivan Ljubicic, who at around 8.0, has the draw to do well this week in a tournament he's won before.
The Croatian has four career titles on this surface and despite being slightly past his best, he's shown enough this year for me to believe he can still win tournaments such as this.
He's been drawn in the same quarter as Kohlschreiber, who Ljubicic has beaten in each of their three career meetings and he only really has Gasquet and perhaps Grigor Dimitrov to concern him in the bottom half of the draw.
Ljubicic hasn't played a great deal of tennis this year and he looks to be managing his schedule very well, plus his only losses in his last eight tournaments have been at the hands of top-10 or former top-10 players.
Take a chance on Ivan to make the most of his handy draw in the Moselle Open this week.
Recommended Bet
Long shot
