The Two Andys(credit:
Ahund)
About a year ago Andy Roddick looked like he was about to drop out of the top ten on the men's tour. He'd missed Rolando Garros 2008, he'd fallen early at the Aussie, and while he was still giving great results at the US Open they weren't the same as years past. Also at last year's Wimbledon, Roddick was the victim of a second round upset to Janko Tipsarevic and a decline in his ranking seemed foreseeable.
But now in 2009 Roddick seemingly has turned things around. He made the semis at the Aussie and, not a clay courter, he turned in a personal best at Roland Garros by making the fourth round. Now Andy Roddick has made the semis at Wimbledon 2009, somewhere he hasn't been since 2005 and he has drawn Andy Murray who is 6-2 lifetime against Roddick.
Does Roddick have a chance here?
In answering that question, a blind eye should not be turned to the fact that Roddick's draw so far has been absent of a top level player in Wimbledon 2009. Lleyton Hewitt, as solid as he is, is 4-5 years removed from his best tennis and he was the one that took out hotshot Del Potro early in the tournament, not Roddick. Also, Roddick is 2-5 against Rafael Nadal so one would have to think that the current semifinals position that Roddick holds, might actually belong to the defending champion if he was up the challenge.
The partisan Murray crowd isn't going to bother Roddick at all because he's too much of a veteran of top level tennis to get defeated by fans. However, Murray doesn't need fan support and a friendly environment to take out his opponents and Roddick is simply
outmatched, man for man.
A statistical comparison of Murray and Roddick also suggests that Murray is going to win this match. Murray has won has won 56.08% of the points he has played at Wimbledon this year while Roddick has won 54.33%: that might not seem like a huge difference but it actually is.
Over the course of 5 matches, if you lose 1-2% more points than someone else, that means
you will be playing a lot more points in total as sets and matches go deeper and have more deuce games. Even if you win, as Roddick has, playing long matches will contribute to higher levels of fatigue as the tournament moves forward.
Fittingly, Roddick has played 1224 points in Wimbledon this year while Murray has played only 1061. The five setter that Roddick played against Hewitt probably took a lot out of the tank.
In short, Murray has all the edges that one would look for: he's better heads up and he's been more efficient in the tournament thus far.
Our recommendation is to go to
bet365 and to pick Murray at -400 (1/4). If you do not like those odds then pick Murray to win Wimbledon outright at bet365 at +250 as he will stand a reasonable chance against Federer in the finals and certainly against Haas.