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Spread Betting Weekend Preview 26th-28th September

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This weekend sees another Premier League local derby for spread betting punters to get stuck into when Everton and Liverpool meet at Goodison Park on Saturday lunchtime.

Buyers of the Reds supremacy will take heart that they have won five of the last 10 visits to their local rivals and have only lost two. However, in-play punters may like to wait before showing their hand, as although the Toffees haven’t been very successful against the Big Four, in the past two seasons they have only trailed at half-time in three of the 16 games.

Interestingly, in 11 of those 16 they have either gone in goalless (6 of 16) or Everton leading 1-0 (5 of 16). In addition, Liverpool tend to be weaker during the first half when playing away against sides who had finished in the top half the previous season. They have only been winning at the break in four of the past 16 of such games in the last two campaigns. Sporting Index’s total goals spread is set at 2.4-2.6 for the match and sellers will be heartened to hear that almost half of the Red’s away games against teams which had finished in the top half, have recorded only one goal or less.

The Merseyside Derby has regularly been referred to as the ‘Friendly Derby’, but the spread betting public who like to dabble in the bookings markets know that this isn’t quite true. Although both sides have two of the best records in the league for bookings points (10pts per yellow, and 25pts per red), this game in recent times has certainly had more of a fiery edge to it.  The average points tally in Merseyside Derbies since Rafa Benitez became boss of Liverpool is an incredible 73 from eight games, with the referee awarding seven red cards during those games, two of which came in this corresponding fixture last season. In-play punters take note, each game that has seen a red card between these two in the Rafa era has always ended with a points total of at least 75.

Tottenham have had a very shaky start to the season yet again and with Portsmouth suffering a humiliating 6-0 defeat at Man City last weekend, this is the perfect game for spread bettors to back their own judgment. Sellers of Pompey supremacy at 0.3 will be hoping that Harry Redknapp’s side put in an equally dismal defensive display as against City and will be delighted to hear that Spurs have won six and drawn one of the last seven meetings between the sides. Total goals buyers will be concerned that, since Pompey’s 7-4 home win against Reading last season, only two games in the past 17 matches at Fratton Park have seen more than 2 goals. Sellers will take even greater confidence from nine of Spurs’ 15 away games under Juande Ramos ending with 2 or less goals.

Spurs local rivals Arsenal on the other hand have started the season in imperious fashion and there were cries of despair on the Sporting Index trading floor, as their kids rattled in six goals midweek against Sheffield United. Saturday’s visitors are newly-promoted Hull City and sellers of goals on the spreads could again be in for a torrid evening. In the past decade, the Gunners have run rings around promoted sides and average just under an astonishing four goals per game (102 goals in 26 games = 3.92 goals per game). However, sellers of Arsenal supremacy will take heart from their opening game 1-0 victory against promoted West Brom this season. Buyers of total goals will be delighted to hear that 19 out of 26 of these matches against promoted sides have seen at least three goals and 13 games have seen four or more. In all bar one of the 13 games with four goals, there was also a fifth goal scored.

The F1 season rolls on with the first ever night-time Grand Prix to be held in Singapore. This is the first GP in Singapore, so there is not a great deal to go on with regard to previous form. However, following the shock victory of Vettel in Italy two weeks ago, Sporting Index have now set the season points market at 100-103 for Massa and 102-105 for Lewis Hamilton. The Singapore GP is a street circuit and as Hamilton has already shown this season with his epic performance at Monaco, these tight turns and chicanes bring out the best in him, or that’s at least what buyers of him in the race win index will be hoping for.

The key racing action of the weekend comes from Ascot and the winner of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes will be crowned Europe’s top miler. Spread bettors looking to buy winning distances will be disappointed to find that only twice since Dubai Millennium crucified the field in 1999 has the winner crossed the line more than one and a half lengths in front. Sellers of SP’s have reason to be happy as although only four of the past 10 favourites have won the race, only two have been priced bigger than 7/1. The race is open to all ages and five-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals. However, if that stat is to be repeated, then punters will only have Racinger (probably available to buy at 3 in the Sporting Index win market on the day) and Sabana Perdida (around 28/1 at the time of writing) running for them.


Bill Esdaile of squareintheair.com, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available. Please note these are his views and are not the views of Bettingpro.

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Spread Betting Weekend Preview 26th-28th September

This weekend sees another Premier League local derby for spread betting punters to get stuck into when Everton and Liverpool meet at Goodison Park on Saturday lunchtime.

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