The Sporting Index traders will be well aware of Arsenal’s record against Middlesbrough ahead of the televised match at the Riverside on Saturday. Excusing Stoke and Hull, who each have a 100% win record after just the one game, Arsenal’s worst record in the league against any club dating back to 05/06 is against ‘Boro (W1-D3-L2). Half of these games were 1-1 draws, but before both sellers of total goals and sellers of Arsenal’s supremacy on the spreads get too excited, we should highlight one of the ingrained factors that makes spread betting so exciting – the freak result. Arsenal’s one win was a 7-0 thrashing at Highbury, with a staggering final goal minutes make of 328 – undoubtedly one of the biggest goal minutes wins for Sporting Index punters ever.
This game should be quite interesting for time of the first goal spread punters, as the Gunners haven’t scored a first-half goal on the road in the league since September, whilst ‘Boro have scored only two first-half goals in their last 12 league games. In saying that, those spread bettors buying the time of the ‘Boro first goal should be aware that the Teesiders have taken the lead in all of the last four meetings between these sides, including have a first half lead in three of those four. The bookings index is another exciting betting market perfectly suited to the spread punter and buyers of bookings in this fixture will be willing the referee to be as active as in previous matches between the clubs. In their last six encounters, a red card has been brandished on no less than four occasions. With 25 points on offer for a red card on the index and 10 for each yellow, an average of 60 points per match has been awarded in this time, with the make-up totalling 95 in one fiery match in 2006.
Ask the casual football follower which teams have been most successful against the Big Four this season and, having heard the standard jokes doing the rounds a few weeks ago, they would be unlikely to mention Tottenham. Spurs, along with Fulham, are the only teams outside the Big Four to be unbeaten against the Big Four this season (W1-D2-L0) – which might concern confident buyers of Man United’s supremacy ahead of the teams’ meeting at White Hart Lane on Saturday. Buyers of Spurs on the Sporting Index win index will also be delighted by their new manager’s record against the top sides. Harry Redknapp, since bringing Portsmouth up, has gone W7-D8-L7 at home in the league against the Big Four, losing only one of his last nine — although United spread supporters will remember that one defeat was against United earlier this season with Pompey.
With respect to goals and to the mercy of buyers of Man Utd’s supremacy, Spurs have kept just the one clean sheet in their last 25 home games against the Big Four – and they have not kept one against United since Alex Ferguson’s first trip to White Hart Lane as United manager in 1987 (22 games ago). One final interesting point on this game for those punting on the Sporting Index bookings market is that although recent games between these sides have been nowhere near as littered with cards as Middlesbrough v Arsenal matches on average, the bookings makeup for the last Spurs game against United in North London ended up with 10 yellow cards and a make up of 100 points!
Moving onto Sunday’s big game and those looking to buy Chelsea’s supremacy with Sporting Index against West Ham will be hoping that the contest follows recent form. The Blues have conceded just two goals all season to non-Big Four sides, keeping 11 clean sheets in those 13 games (four of five at home) as well as in over 60% of those games (52/85) in the Abramovich era. Ten of those 13 have been won to nil. In fact, if spread bettors were to look closely at the Abramovich era as a whole, over half (44/85) of all Chelsea games at the Bridge against non-Big Four teams have ended in a win to nil.
It will be no surprise to those punters familiar with spread betting that Chelsea, at 19.5-21, are big favourites on the Sporting Index win index. West Ham have failed to score in eight of their 14 trips to the Big Four since their promotion, as well as in eight of their last 11 home and away (five of six on the road) since the start of last season. Buyers of West Ham’s spread on the win index will be hoping for at least a draw, something that they did manage away to another of the Big Four, Liverpool, only last week. Sellers on the total goals spread will be hoping for the same, and may well have based their betting decision on the last two times West Ham have made the short journey across the capital to Stamford Bridge – both 1-0 wins in Chelsea’s favour.
Finally, the final 16 for the Champions League are now known and the Sporting Index traders have Barcelona in as favourites in the outright index with a spread of 42-45 (winner = 100, runner-up = 75, lose semi-final = 50, lose quarter-final = 25, last 16 = 10, all others = 0). Sellers of their supremacy will be glad that Spanish clubs have only made three semi-final appearances in the last four years, whilst patriotic spread bettors buying the English sides have much more in their favour in recent times, with nine appearances in the last four seasons. In saying that, Chelsea are joint-second favourites with Man United (41-44 spread) and the fact that they didn’t win their group could prove ominous. In the past 12 years, eight champions had topped their qualification pool, whilst just under 75% of the last 24 finalists had been group winners.
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Bill Esdaile of squareintheair.com, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available. Please note these are his views and are not the views of Bettingpro.