A fairly quiet period of sporting action now until the Olympics kicks off, closely followed by the start of the football season. We’ll look in more detail at the Olympics next week when the spreads are released, but I’m sure there will be plenty of you looking to get your teeth into some pre-season football spread markets. According to Sporting Index, it looks like this season will be another tight battle between Man United (season points spread: 82.5-84) and Chelsea (82-83.5) for the title, whilst Arsenal (75-76.5) and Liverpool (74-75.5) look destined to fight it out for third and fourth. Those who fancy any of the top four to win the league will be pleased to hear that three of the past five champions have won with a final points tally of 90 or bigger. However, buyers of United in the points index might be slightly concerned that their last four titles have been with a points tally of 87, 89, 83 and 80. Chelsea buyers will take heart from their team’s recent two winning seasons earning 91 and 95 points; whilst they have failed to register less than 80 points in the Abramovich era.

Both United and Chelsea have been consistent in their respective points tallies over the past five years, but Liverpool and Arsenal have been the opposite. The Gunners average points over the past five seasons has been an impressive 78.2, which will be music to the ears of buyers at 76.5. However, prior to last season’s third place, they had dropped to fourth both seasons beforehand and only registered 68 and 67 points. Liverpool’s average total on the other hand is only 68.8, which will please those selling at 74. It’s worth remembering though that they have earned 82 and 76 points in two of the past three seasons. Everton are the only club to split the ‘big four’ in the past five seasons, so spread bettors buying them at 57.5 will be hoping they can equal or eclipse their 2004/2005 total of 61 points. They actually did even better than that last season, ending the season on 65 points having finished fifth, which will be of major concern to those selling them at 56.

Hull City, whose points spread is set at 27-28.5, are the favourites for the wooden spoon, closely followed by Stoke City, who can be sold at 28. Interestingly, sellers of the team who finished bottom in the last three years would have done quite well on either of these quotes. Derby broke the record last season for the lowest ever Premier League tally with only 11 points, whilst Watford registered 28 in 2006/2007 and Sunderland just 15 in 2005/2006. The average points total for the last five teams who went down in the final relegation spot is 34.8, which will be of concern to West Brom buyers at 36.5. Sporting Index also have a Premier League relegation index (where you are awarded 60 points for finishing last, 40 for second bottom, 30 for third, 20 for fourth, 10 for fifth, 5 for sixth bottom and 0 for all others) and sellers of West Brom will be hoping they can repeat their feat of 2004/2005, when they just managed to stay up the season after being promoted.

The Championship looks as tough as always this year and Sporting Index are struggling to split the top teams in the market. Incredibly, there are only 10 points difference between the spreads of Birmingham in first place (74.5-76.5) and Charlton in ninth (64-66). The Baggies won last year with a relatively small points tally of 81, but buyers will be hoping that their selection imitates Reading’s achievement in 2005/2006 when they registered 106 points – a league record. This was particularly incredible when you consider the other two promoted sides (Sheffield United and Watford) ended the season on 90 and 81 points respectively – much higher than anyone in Sporting Index’s pre-season points market this time round.

The buzz team in the league is undoubtedly QPR, with their multi-billion pound backing. They are predicted to finish third in the points index, but in the past eight years, only 5.1% of teams (4 out of 78) have overcome a negative goal difference from their previous Championship campaign to achieve promotion. In addition, sellers of them in the Championship outright index will be pleased to hear that in the last 12 seasons, over 50% (19/36) of the promoted teams from the Championship have come from the teams that were either relegated from the Premiership the season before, or those that missed out in the playoffs. When you include the teams that finished just outside the playoff spots (7th-9th) in the previous campaign, the promoted figure rises to almost 70%.

The horseracing highlight of the weekend is undoubtedly the King George at Ascot. Aidan O’Brien will be hoping to add yet another Group One prize to his satchel with hot favourite Duke of Marmalade. He is likely to go off a short price and the spread bettors amongst you who sell SP’s will be pleased to hear that favourites have won the last four renewals and no horse bigger than 13/2 has won this race in the past decade. There has been a mixture of commanding displays and tight finishes over the past 10 years. Buyers of winning distances will be pleased to hear that four of the past nine winners have won by 3 lengths or more. They will be further buoyed by both of Aidan’s winners (Dylan Thomas in 2007 and Galileo in 2001) winning by 4 and 2 lengths respectively.