We have an abundance of FA Cup action to look forward to this weekend and spread betting traders have the unenviable task of pricing up games where the form book often goes out the window.
We’ll start by casting our eyes over one of the more familiar all-Premier League ties, starting with Man United v Spurs on Saturday evening. Spread bettors will be well aware of the Red Devils’ dominance over this fixture in recent times, as the last time they tasted defeat against the North London side was 17 contests ago at White Hart Lane in May 2001. Buyers of Spurs in the Sporting Index win index will be hoping Redknapp’s side can re-write the history books, as the last time they won at Old Trafford was in 1989. However, supporters will also point to ‘Arry knocking out United at the Theatre of Dreams last season as Portsmouth manager.
This fixture is a repeat of the fourth round of the FA Cup last year and buyers of United’s supremacy on the spreads will be hoping that lightning strikes twice as Cristiano Ronaldo’s 88th minute goal wrapped up a 3-1 win after Spurs had taken a first-half lead. United have a 100% record in this round of the Cup in the last six years and the Sporting Index goal buyers will note that all of these wins saw at least three goals scored. Spurs’ record on their travels to top flight sides in this round isn’t bad, winning, drawing and losing three, whilst six of the nine games saw at least 3 goals.
The first live game for spread bettors to get their teeth into on Saturday sees resurgent West Ham travel up to the land of Jeff Stelling to take on Hartlepool, who knocked out Premier League Stoke in the last round. The Hammers will have plenty of supporters on the spreads thanks to their excellent run of recent results – they’ve won four and drawn one of their last five across all competitions. In fact, you only have to go back three seasons to when they nearly lifted the Cup, but buyers of them in the Sporting Index outright index will be concerned that they haven’t made it past the fourth round since.
The FA Cup is famous for its shocks and the spread bettors who fancy the Hammers to struggle on Saturday certainly do have a few stats to cling onto. Since 1992, there have been seven occasions when League One sides have hosted a Premier League outfit and the home side has won three and drawn one. Hammers supremacy sellers will be further encouraged by the record of sides in all rounds since 2001/02; with the Premier League side only winning four compared with the League One side’s six (W6-D4-L4). Goals have been firmly on the menu at the Victoria Ground this season, with an average of 3.8 goals per game in the league. Spread goal buyers will be hoping for more of the same on Saturday, but sellers will take heart that Pools have faced Premier League opposition six times in the FA Cup at home and five of those have ended with one solitary goal.
Merseyside Derby #2 is the final live action of the weekend and those who had bought Liverpool’s supremacy with Sporting Index in Monday night’s game would have had their head in their hands at exactly the same time as Tim Cahill’s goal minutes buyers would have been rubbing their hands with glee. It’s not often that two Merseyside Derbies come as quickly as this, but for those spread bettors who had followed the recent trends of high bookings points last Monday, they would have been very disappointed with the final make up of just 20 points.
On to Sunday’s game and Liverpool supporters will be pleased that home advantage has been a crucial factor in all-Premier League fourth round ties in recent years. In the past seven seasons, the home side has won 16 of 26 games at this stage of the competition, whilst people looking to get against the Reds on the spreads must be concerned that Everton have won only one of nine fourth round games against top flight opposition since they last won the Cup in 1995. However, it’s also worth remembering that two of the past three meetings between these two at Anfield have ended in a draw.
The Australian Open is in full swing in Melbourne and is shaping up for a very exciting second week. The ladies competition looks wide open this year, with any one of several players in the reckoning. Before she was knocked out by Suarez-Navarro, Venus Williams was marginal favourite on Sporting Index’s outright index which just goes to show that going against the favourites can sometimes be a winning tactic. It is buyers of younger sister Serena’s spread, at 23-26 points (60pts to tournament winner, 40pts runner up, 20pts for losing semi-finalists, 10pts losing quarters, 5pts for last 16), who will be encouraged by a glance at the tournament history. Buyers may conclude that it is simply Serena’s turn to win – since 2003 she has won in every odd numbered year, winning the title in 2003, 2005 and 2007. Other contenders include Jelena Jankovich (22-25pts), Dinara Safina (16-19pts) and Elena Dementieva (13-16pts) – spread bettors with a wager on any of these Eastern European women might be interested to know that in the nine women’s finals since 2000, an American has emerged victorious on six occasions.
In the men’s competition, Andy Murray has secured his seat at tennis’s top table after a great start to 2009 and Sporting Index’s outright index reflects this, making him second favourite at 27-30 points behind Federer (28-31pts). Buyers of any of the top four’s outright spread (Nadal and Djokovic completing the quartet) will be pleased to know that the Australian Open rarely throws up any surprises in terms of finalists, with only two winners since 1990 who had not reached the final of at least one of the three non-clay Slams the previous year. Tsonga is the other player who can make the final according to this rule, as eager buyers of his index at 9-12 will already have acknowledged. His greatest hurdle, and that of those spread bettors cheering him on, will be a possible quarter final meeting with Murray.
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Bill Esdaile of squareintheair.com, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available. Please note these are his views and are not the views of Bettingpro.