One of the biggest flat handicaps of the season takes place in Newcastle on Saturday, as 20 runners line up for the Northumberland Plate over 2 miles. There have been some big-priced winners of late, including two 33/1 shots in the past four years, which will please SP buyers. However, Juniper Girl was the first favourite to win the race last year since Martin Pipe’s Far Cry in 1999. Michael Bell’s charge won the race after coming second in the Ascot Stakes a few days earlier, which will be of interest for those punters buying Michael Jarvis’ Bukit Tinggi in the win index. The 4-year-old colt was beaten only ½ a length into fourth in the same race, exactly the same margin as Juniper Girl.

Two 8-year-olds have won the race since 2000, but 4-year-olds have the best record – winning 50% of the last 10 renewals. Only one horse has carried more than 9 stone to victory in the past decade (Bangalore for Amanda Perrett in 2002) and those at the bottom of the handicap do tend to fare best (four of the last eight winners have carried 8st4lb or less). The race is famed for its thrilling finishes, which is what sellers of winning distances like to hear. The handicapper has definitely been doing his job over the past ten years and incredibly seven of the last 10 winning distances have been a head, neck or a short head, whilst the longest has been 1&1/2 lengths.

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