We looked at the Premiership and Championship in detail last week, but for some spread bettors the goings-on in League One can be just as important.
Leeds United are clear favourites to win the title in Sporting Index’s season points market, with a spread of 77.5-79.5. Some punters may be surprised to hear of such a large quote seeing as they finished last year with just 76. However, they would be forgetting the 15-point deduction the Yorkshire outfit had to contend with and buyers of them in the season points tally will be hoping for an equally strong campaign this time around. Leicester are next best with a spread of 73-75 and those who fancy either of these two to win the league would feel confident buying their points looking back at previous champions. In the last eight years, the average points total earned by the champion has been 92 – exactly the number Swansea City finished on last season. Southend in 2005/2006 won the title with the lowest number of points in 82 (their spread is 66.5-68.5 this year), whilst Wigan broke the iconic 100 mark in 2002/2003.
However, sellers of either Leeds or any of the other teams who finished in the top six last season will be delighted to hear that none of the last seven champions had finished in the top six the season before. In fact, the record of the last seven reads as follows: 7th, 12th, promoted lower division, 10th, 8th, 10th and promoted lower division again. Leicester’s season points buyers will be worried that a number of ‘big’ teams have failed to get back up at the first attempt. One of the most notable aspects about League One champions for spread betting punters to consider is that there have been some incredibly comfortable seasons for some champions since the Millennium. In that period, three teams have won by 10 points or more (including Swansea last season), whilst only two were by less than six points.
The next round in the battle for the Formula One World Championship moves to Hungary, with Lewis Hamilton in pole position in the Sporting Index driver’s season points index. His spread is currently set at 105-108 after back-to-back victories, which is just shy of his 109 total last year. Although the spreads won’t be released until after qualifying, Hamilton is the first driver to register back-to-back victories this season. It is the second occasion he has done this in his short, yet illustrious career, but buyers of him in the race win index will be slightly concerned that the last driver to register three wins in a row was the great Michael Schumacher in 2006. However, Hamilton won this race last year and if he was to win again this time round, Britain would have won this race for three years in a row, after Jenson Buttons’ remarkable victory in 2006.
The Hungaroring is set in a valley 18 kilometres outside Budapest. The circuit is infamously difficult to perform overtaking manoeuvres due to its tight corners which often means spread bettors will wait for qualifying before they make their decision on the race index. However, the track has thrown up some memorable races, including Damon Hill daringly overtaking Michael Schumacher in 1997, only to lose the race thanks to engine failure on the last lap. There will be plenty of punters interested in playing the winning distance spread once they have seen qualifying. However, it may pay to tread with caution as it certainly appears to be a volatile market at this circuit. Although two of the last three winners have won by 30 seconds or more, Hamilton last year became the second winner in the space of six years to win by under a second.
Glorious Goodwood has been as glorious as ever so far, but there is still plenty of top quality action on Saturday. The Blue Square Nassau Stakes is one of the top fillies’ races of the year and was won by a certain Peeping Fawn in 2007. Spread betting punters will be intrigued to hear that all of the last three favourites have won the race and six of the past eight have also been successful. Sellers of SP’s will be further buoyed by the news that no horse bigger than 11/2 has won in the past decade. It is not just sellers of SP’s who will take heart from the stats, but also those who like to sell the winning distance spread. Only one horse in the last 10 years has won this race by more than 1 & ¾ lengths and there have been two short-heads and a neck winning margin in the past five runnings.
The Stewards Cup is one of the most hotly contested sprints of the season and Zidane managed to get up under the shadow of the winning post to pinch the race last year. The SP buyers will understandably prefer the Stewards to the Nassau, as 30 line-up for this 6 furlong cavalry charge. However, two of the last four jollies have been successful, whilst the biggest priced winner in the past five years was 10/1. With a race like this on the card, punters will undoubtedly expect a low winning distance spread and if you look at the last three years, that quote would look truly justified. The winning distances read short-head, neck and neck. However, Patavellian’s victory in 2003 was achieved by an outstanding 3 ½ lengths, which will please buyers.
Bill Esdaile of squareintheair.com, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available. Please note these are his views and are not the views of Bettingpro.