France take on group leaders Holland in Berne on Friday night, knowing that a defeat would leave them with a mountain to climb in terms of qualification. They can currently be bought at 25, along with group rivals Italy, in the Sporting Index outright market (where you are awarded 100 for winning, 75 for runner up, 50 for losing a semi-final, 25 losing a quarter-final and 0 for any worse) and are equal seventh favourites for the title. Sellers at 22 should be aware though that the last time Les Bleus started a major tournament with a draw (World Cup 2006) they went on to contest the final. Holland started in imperious fashion against Italy on Monday night and can now be bought at 48 in the outright index. They last won a major tournament in 1988, but they have made it to the semi-finals in three of the last four European Championships since then.

These two countries have met each other 21 times in their history and Holland have the slight edge with nine wins to France’s eight. Sporting Index can’t split the two sides, but buyers of Dutch supremacy at 0 will take heart from the Orange Army’s recent record – winning five and drawing one of their last six games. French buyers will be concerned that they have drawn two and lost one of their past six games and have only managed to score four goals in those games. However, since 1990 France have only lost one of 22 competitive matches against top-10 ranked teams. Ironically, that one defeat came against Holland in Euro 2000, but it was after both teams had already qualified for the knockout phase.

Buyers of total goals at 2.2 will be concerned that eight of the last 11 contests between these two have seen 2 goals or fewer, whilst three of the four competitive meetings (World Cup and Euros) have also only had 2 goals or less. Les Bleus have only scored four goals in their past six games and all of those games have had 2 goals or less. However, buyers will be hoping the Dutch can continue their goalscoring form, as they average 2.66 goals per game in their last six (16 from past 6 games).

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