Historically, the UK Championship has not been the hardest to predict, with odds about the winner only rarely being generous.

Since it became a ranking event in 1984, the game's legends have dominated. Steve Davis won four titles during the 1980s, Stephen Hendry five during his dominant era, Ronnie O'Sullivan four, John Higgins three, Mark Williams and Ding Junhui two apiece.

The only recent non-seed to win, Stephen Maguire, was strongly fancied having lost a ranking final the previous week. The explanation for the formbook standing up so well was a combination of the tournament's prestigious status, plus the fact it was the only event besides the World Championship where all matches were played over two sessions.

Change, however, is afoot, with matches before the semi-finals reduced to best of 11 for the first time this year, making upsets a little more likely. Whatever the effect, my principal pre-tournament snooker betting strategy remains the same. Evaluate the draw, then pick a man in each quarter, with a view to holding the dream hand of all four semi-finalists.

That change to a shorter format is not to everyone's taste, not least defending champion Higgins, whose reaction was scathing, and I doubt being pitched into this 'quarter of death' will improve his mood. While Higgins will be red-hot favourite to beat Rory Mcleod in his opener, the latter's sluggish style may well result in their match taking longer than the average best of 17. Assuming he progresses, Higgins will probably have to face Stephen Maguire, followed by either Ronnie O'Sullivan or Judd Trump just to reach the semis. Given a slow start to the season that has seen the world champ fail to win any of the 10 PTC events, I suspect he'll come a cropper somewhere.

In stark contrast, O'Sullivan and Trump have been the best two players so far this season, and are scheduled for a classic second round meeting. Without taking anything away from the in-form Rocket, Trump represents superior value at almost twice the odds. The sport's great hope has maintained the breathtaking form that saw him win the China Open and reach the World Final at the end of last season. Before long, we will look back at these double figure quotes about Trump with wonder.

The leading two candidates in this quarter, Ding Junhui and Neil Robertson, have tricky looking opening matches against in-form qualifiers, suggesting Graeme Dott could provide a bit of trading value. Seventh on this season's Order of Merit, Dott is in solid enough form and is reliable against lesser opponents like Matthew Selt, whom he meets in the first round. The further he goes, the greater respect Dott will warrant, given his tremendous pedigree over the longer matches as a three-time world finalist.

Martin Gould would represent the biggest shock winner in this tournament's history, but the 'Pinner Potter' is not to be under-estimated. Although, I wouldn't read too much into his recent victory in the gimmicky Power Snooker event, he looked an emerging player last season who kept bumping into bang-in-form class acts at the wrong time. His match against Trump at the Crucible was a case in point, with Gould impressing and losing nothing in defeat. I'll be surprised if Gould has any trouble with journeyman Peter Lines first up, and he will represent a tough obstacle against likely 'superior' opponents Shaun Murphy and Mark Williams before the semis. The last-named remains the man to beat in this section, but from a trading perspective at least, Gould rates excellent value.

Given all those class acts to have previously won this trophy, Selby is bound to win a UK title one day, and rates a confident fancy to at least reach the latter stages. The last time BBC viewers saw Selby, he was all the rage at the World Championship, producing some scintillating snooker to assume strong favouritism, before a surprise defeat to an in-form Ding at the quarter-final stage. Since then, he's become provisionally world number one and won three titles, including the Shanghai Masters ranking event.

Moreover, while there are plenty of tricky opponents, nobody else in this quarter has ever looked quite in Selby's class. First-round opponent Ryan Day is a frustrating under-achiever who nearly always comes off second best in encounters with Selby, while the likes of Mark Allen, Stuart Bingham and Ali Carter are ultimately nearly-men. Take the perfectly reasonable odds of 8.0 that this is the week Selby cements his new status as the game's best.