Can England stop France from winning the Six Nations?

England are now the only side that can prevent France from winning the Grand Slam but odds of 13/2 (Sporting Bet) for an England win would suggest that Martin Johnson’s re-jigged side will suffer the same fate as Scotland, Ireland , Wales and Italy before them and return home with nothing.

Johnson has made six changes to the side that fought out an uninspiring draw against Scotland. Jonny Wilkinson being dropped to the bench in favour of Toby Flood has undoubtedly made the most headlines but the inclusion of Rugby League convert Chris Ashton on the wing has the potential to be the most exciting for England fans. Ashton has scored 19 tries in 25 games for Northampton so far this season and at 6ft and 14 stone will hope he will see enough ball to test his 5’5” opposite number Marc Andreu.  Ashton is 14/1 with SkyBet to score the game’s first try on his debut.

France bring back Mathieu Basteraud as the only change to the side that hammered Italy last week and his partnership with fellow powerhouse centre Yannick Jauzion may look to test the defence of England’s new look midfield and exploit any unfamiliarity that may be there. Either could be a decent bet to score the first try. Basteraud is 14/1 (Stan James) while Jauzion is 16/1 (Sporting Bet).

In their last two games, against Italy and Wales, France have taken their foot off the gas after building commanding leads so it may be worth a look at England scoring the last try of the match, especially if French nerves start to kick in as they inch nearer to victory.  After his cameo appearance against Scotland, full back Ben Foden (18/1 with BlueSquare to score the game’s last try) will hope to have a full 80 minutes to impress and has the running ability to make the most of lazy defences.

Recent history may be on England’s side with victories in each of the last three meetings between these sides but current form is certainly siding with the French. While both sides have conceded five tries each in the tournament so far, all of France’s have been leaked when the game was practically already won.  In attack France have outscored England by 13 tries to five and it is this attacking potency that should see France back up their favourites tag (1/5 Betfred) to take the match, the title and a first Grand Slam since 2004.

A winning margin of 15-20 points (7/1 Totesport) could be within the capabilities of the French even accounting for the added pressure they will undoubtedly be under from their own fans who will be expecting a win to round off the championship.  Allez les Bleus!