Wales will rely on a strong second half performance to beat France in Saturday's Rugby World Cup semi final
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It is not often that you get an opportunity to back a team at odds-against that has beaten the opposition in nine of their last 11 meetings, but that is the scenario that punters find themselves in when France take on Wales in the first World Cup semi final.
France have barely broken sweat against Wales in recent times and Marc Lievremont's side are priced at 2.3 on Betfair to bring to a juddering halt all of the unbridled optimism behind Wales's bid to reach the final for the first time.
And there is plenty to get excited about if you are a Wales supporter. Although Rhys Priestland misses out due to injury, having James Hook at fly half is hardly a raw deal. Wales have won 12 of the 17 matches in which he has started in the No 10 jersey. When Hook has been the main place kicker Wales have been handicap winners on the main line in eight of their last ten matches.
Wales's magnificent quarter-final victory over Ireland last week was based firmly on defence. Much like the success of Australia over the Springboks, Wales tackled Ireland to a standstill. They made 50% more tackles than their Six Nations rivals, with Sam Warburton and Dan Lydiate showing how influential the back row has been this tournament.
It is no surprise that three of the four best foraging flankers in the tournament are in the semi-finals. Warbuton, Richie McCaw and David Pocock have consistently provided their teams with turnover ball, while allowing their defences to realign by slowing the pace at the breakdown. Thierry Dusatoir may be one of the most destructive tacklers in the world game but on the floor he is liable to come off second best against Warburton.
With quick ball Hook can galvanise Wales's penetrative back line to score tries. Out wide, Shane Williams has a poor record against France, scoring only two tries in the nine matches but the fearless youth of Leigh Halfpenny and George North will present a new challenge to France's defence.
France did nothing special last week to beat England. The lazy analysts out there reached for the irritating line that the "right" France turned up in Auckland to send England packing. In beating the Six Nations champions 19-12, France received an extraordinary amount of turnover ball, missed five attempts at goal and conceded a double-figure penalty count. Quite simply, England put in an abject performance. From those statistics, which France team do you think turned up?
As outlined in my pre-tournament analysis of Les Bleus, the key to them is belief. Give them a sniff and they will punish teams. Only once under Lievremont have they lost a match having been in the lead at half-time (the bizarre Six Nations against Italy this year when they lost 22-21). Conversely, when they have been behind at the break they have clawed it back only twice. England handed them the match on a silver platter by being behind by 16 points after half an hour.
Wales have been prolific in the second half compared to the first 40 minutes ever since Gatland took charge for the 2008 Six Nations. The approach has become more obvious since the squad returned from their cryogenic chambers during the summer, which has seen them raise their fitness level considerably.
As a result Wales look good value to outscore Les Bleus in the second half. It is only the matter of who will be leading at the break that should decide who progresses.
