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Aviva Premiership preview - Will Greenwood's tips

LONDON, ENGLAND - AUGUST 20: Conor O'Shea (L), Director of Rugby at Harlequins and Chris Robshaw pose during the Aviva Premiership Season Launch 2012-2013 at Twickenham Stadium on August 20, 2012 in London, England. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images for Aviva)
Will Greenwood shares his thoughts and betting tips on the upcoming Aviva Premiership season.

Was I surprised by Harlequins title-winning season in 2011-12? The answer has to be 'yes' because I backed Leicester to beat them in the final. On the other hand, I was in awe of their performance at Twickenham in May and the emergence of Chris Robshaw as a back-row powerhouse is one of the great stories of the new era of English rugby.

The Quins captain, I think, is now a shoo-in to be on the plane to Australia next summer with the British Lions. What a journey it's been for him over the last year: from missing out on World Cup squad selection to winning the Premiership, player of the season award and leading England in South Africa. It's not all about Robshaw - Nick Evans is a magical player and Nick Easter, liberated from Elite Player Squad commitments, will be huge - but Quins and their captain are determined to consolidate. I expect the England skipper to go from strength to strength but I think Quins' rivals can tip the power.

No prizes for guessing who I'm principally talking about. Leicester Tigers want their trophy back and they have the players, infrastructure and aura to do so. They will be smarting from being destroyed at Twickenham and Richard Cockerill will have used that hurt to motivate his players for this campaign.

Regular Season Winner

Leicester have scant reasons to be downhearted. Anyone betting on the regular season winner market must consider the disruption that the World Cup caused last season. It's always the way, the big teams suffer most because they lose more players. Leicester saw key men go away to New Zealand and some returned in physical and mental disrepair. They felt the impact of the World Cup more than Quins who were able to blaze their way to the top while the Tigers languished. That won't happen this time and, if Leicester can reproduce the level of rugby they produced to turn last season around, they will be nigh on unstoppable. Welford Road remains the Premiership's most impregnable fortress. I'll back Leicester to win the regular season and I expect them to reach another Grand Final.

Top Four

Leicester, Harlequins, Saracens, Northampton. Yeah, yeah, some will say I'm playing safe, but the pre-eminence of those clubs looks pretty unshakable. You never know, somebody could disrupt that group. My Sky Sports colleague Stuart Barnes is backing Sale to shake things up but my dark horses are London Irish. They were leaky last season but the arrival of Shaun Edwards as technical coach should tighten the defence. The departures of Delon Armitage, Nick Kennedy and others shouldn't be too detrimental if the likes of Topsy Ojo, Matt Garvey and, an outsider for top tryscorer, Sailosi Tagicakibau step up.

Top Points Scorer

Nick Evans could really capitalise on the opportunities that come his way. Unlike Toby Flood and Owen Farrell, the Quins fly-half won't miss Premiership matches through international commitments.

Relegation Battle

For the last four seasons, the promoted team has stayed up. That trend could come to an end this year. Worcester, many people's tip to struggle, are expert survivalists and they can rely on the boot of Andy Goode to edge tight matches. London Welsh's Premiership status wasn't confirmed until July so I question whether they will have the necessary focus early on. If they make a poor start - remember, Gavin Henson is out for six weeks - the season could pass them by. Whatever happens they will be a stronger team for their top flight experience.

 

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Aviva Premiership preview - Will Greenwood's tips

Will Greenwood shares his thoughts and betting tips on the upcoming Aviva Premiership season.

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