There are possible Cheltenham clues wherever you look this weekend, and there could be a significant shake-up in the betting for the World Hurdle after Saturday's Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, which features a mouth-watering clash between Inglis Drever and Blazing Bailey, the current second and third favourites for Cheltenham.
Inglis Drever has won this race on his reappearance for the past three years and, with the likely easy ground to his liking and with his yard in great form, he can make it four. Whether he's a good bet for the World Hurdle at 9/2 (Stan James) is another matter. While he looked as good as ever when winning his third World Hurdle in March, he will be 10 next time round and horses of that age group have a shocking record in Championship hurdle events. Not even the great Baracouda could do it.
Of course, if the younger horses don't come up to scratch or even miss the race altogether for some reason, he could get away without being as good as last year. However, my gut feeling is to take him on, especially as any hint of deterioration between now and March would surely result in him being retired by connections, and rightly so as he owes them nothing.
So, what of the younger brigade? The aforementioned Blazing Bailey is admirably consistent and he had Inglis Drever behind in third when winning at Aintree in April, where the first time blinkers worked a treat. However, the current champ is never at his best after Cheltenham and Blazing Bailey could only finish fourth in the World Hurdle, which might be as good as he is. At 7/1 (Paddy Power), he doesn't make any ante post appeal whatsoever.
Kasbah Bliss finished a length runner-up in this year's World Hurdle, making Inglis Drever pull out all the stops, and I have no hesitation in nominating him as the most likely winner, even though the current general 3/1 (10/3 sportingbet) might not scream value. Considering he has since shown further improvement on the flat, winning a Group 3 over 2m and finishing fourth in the Group 1 Prix du Cadran, there is every reason to think that he can be even better over hurdles this season, in which case he would be nigh unbeatable come March.
The downside for ante post punters is that we're not likely to see him until the New Year, so he's not going to shorten much in the meantime - unless Inglis Drever retires of course. Finding one at a big price is not easy though. The 16/1 (Ladbrokes) on Pettifour might look generous considering he's unbeaten over hurdles, but his bare form needs improving on, and should he run at Newbury on Saturday, I'd expect Inglis Drever to beat him.
Of the rest, Elusive Dream (14/1 totesport) is arguably best on a flat track, while Mobaasher (16/1 Skybet) looked a tricky ride at Wetherby last time, cruising into the lead only to find nothing on the bridle - he'll probably finish second.
FRANCHOEK is much more interesting for ante post purposes as he appeals as the type to continue improving, especially when he is upped to 3m, in which case his odds will shorten - he looked in need of the race on his reappearance over 2m3f at Ascot recently. His trainer Alan King rates him better than Blazing Bailey and Crystal D'Ainay, who both finished third in the World Hurdle, so the hint should be taken
He'll be five in March and the trends fans will tell you that no five-year-old has ever won the World Hurdle, but plenty have finished in the frame, including Kasbah Bliss last year. While that one appeals as the most likely winner at this stage, the 20/1 (Blue Square, Boylesports) on Franchoek is too big to resist.
Recommended Bet:
Franchoek 1pt each way @ 20/1 Blue Square, Boylesports
