The flat season kicks off this Saturday with a cracking seven-race card at Doncaster, the feature of which is the tricky William Hill Lincoln over the straight mile. I say ‘tricky’ but this race has in fact been punter-friendly in recent years with four of the last 10 winners going off favourite and seven returning at odds of 10/1 or less. So what of this year's favourite Expresso Star (4/1 Blue Square)?

Unraced at two, John Gosden's four-year-old had six runs last season, winning the last three in the style of a class horse and time may show that he’s a Group horse, in which case he would be thrown-in here on a mark of 97. However, the big concern is the ground as all his wins were gained on easy going which, unless the forecast is completely wrong, he won’t get on Saturday. Of course, his class might still get him home in front, but I’m not prepared to take 4/1 in a race of this nature to find out.

Staying with those at the head of the market, Gosden's other runner Charm School (9/1 bet365) should go well, although he has yet to win over this far and nine of the last 10 winners had won over at least 1m. That’s not a problem for Swop (9/1 Victor Chandler) who has won over the trip here and over a slightly shorter trip in Dubai last month, but is on a career-high mark here. Filipando (14/1 Totesport) is another in good form but he too is on a mark from which he has never won.

Huzzah (11/1 William Hill) and Zaahid (14/1 Stan James) are both trained by Barry Hills, who can be relied upon to have his horses well forward, but there's no substitute for race fitness, and TITAN TRIUMPH arrives here in the form of his life having won five handicaps on the all-weather since October. The 5lb penalty he picked up for his latest win at Lingfield raises his mark to 96, but the handicapper has been struggling to get to grips with him so further improvement can't be ruled out.

While all his recent winning has been done on the Polytrack, he does go on the green stuff and his running style is made for big fields. He's a strong traveller who can produce a devastating turn of foot off a strong pace and there are no concerns over the ground as connections have said they wouldn't run him unless it's good or better. At 20/1 with Paddy Power, he looks cracking each-way value, although it might be worth waiting until the day of the race when some firms are likely to be offering five places.

No analysis of the Lincoln would be complete without a mention of the draw and my advice is simple - ignore it! There may have been a draw bias before the track was re-laid a couple of years ago, especially when the ground was soft, but there has been no evidence of a draw bias in the races run since. End of story.

Recommended Bet:

Titan Triumph 1pt each way @ 20/1 Paddy Power