The ground is likely to de desperate for Tuesday's Welsh National at Chepstow (due off 2.10) and that will place a premium on stamina over the energy-sapping 3m5f trip.
One horse who won't mind the conditions one bit is the current favourite Giles Cross (6/1 bet365), who was a gallant runner-up to Synchronised in last season's renewal and set up a return trip with a notable weight-carrying performance to land the Southern National under 11st 12lb last month. The handicapper put him up 4lb for that success but the presence of top weight Hey Big Spender means he carries just 10st 6lb here and he will again be ridden by Denis O'Regan, who was also on board when he finished second in the Tote Eider Chase back in February. With no doubts over the trip, track and ground, he looks absolutely nailed on to to run his race and it will be a surprise if he's not involved at the finish.
However, I suspect he might prove vulnerable to an improver, as he was 12 months ago, and besides this has not been a great race for favourites in recent years - the Paul Nicholls-trained Silver Birch was the last market leader to oblige in 2004. That said, there have been no massive shocks either and the roll call of winners suggests we are best siding with a progressive younger horse with experience of Chepstow's unique, undulating track which can find out many horses, especially when the going is testing. That has to be a worry for anyone considering backing the fancied pair Galaxy Rock (10/1 Paddy Power) and As De Fer (12/1 Boylesports), as neither have jumped a fence around here and the latter is paying his first visit.
My selection CANNINGTON BROOK (18/1 Skybet), on the other hand, can bank on the experience of two previous runs: the first coming on his racecourse debut, when finishing second in a beginners' chase, and he was back here earlier this month when running third to Cheltenham-bound Teaforthree and Restless Harry. Time may show that to be smart form and he's since showed the benefit of that run by winning the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock in similar conditions to what he will face at Chepstow, justifying strong support in the process.
The form comments for that race read: 'took narrow lead when left clear last, tried to pull himself up towards finish, held on'. However, if you watch a re-run it's clear that Cannington Brook was going to win from a long way out and, although Our Island closed to within a length at the line, it was a case of him idling badly on the run-in, which was later confirmed by his jockey Tom O'Brien. The front two were a long way ahead of the rest and, despite a 4lb penalty for that success, the winner gets in here with just 10st 2lb on his back. Granted, his jumping has been a bit iffy in the past but a schooling session with the legendary Yogi Breisner has clearly done the trick as he impressed with his fencing at Haydock, and another clear round should see him go close - I just hope he doesn't get to the front too soon!
In this sort of race it's always worth having a couple running for you and the burden of my second pick goes to the David Pipe-trained MASTER OVERSEER, who was a recent impressive winner over hurdles here and has stamina to burn, having won and finished runner-up in the Sussex National over this distance. The reason we can back him at 20/1 (William Hill) is down to the fact he ran poorly in a handicap chase here last time when he should have been suited by the conditions, but that was a rare off-day for the normally consistent eight-year-old and it's interesting to see that connections are fitting him with a first-time tongue tie. If that allows him to run up to his best, and I've always thought this race was ideal for him, he must have a big chance off just 10st.
As for the rest, you've got to respect the chances of Viking Blond (8/1 Ladbrokes) who, despite being a novice, jumps impeccably and won his only race over fences at this course over 3m. His trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has a decent record in the race with two winners and three placed runners since 1997, and this one could easily make the frame. Le Beau Bai (10/1 Betfred) is another who should relish conditions and he bounced back to form last time when winning the race Master Overseer disappointed in. He should be thereabouts but this looks a big ask for Hennessy winner Carruthers (10/1 Coral), who has to shoulder the welter burden of 11st 8lb.
Recommended Bets:
Cannington Brook 1pt each-way @ 18/1 Skybet
Master Overseer 1pt each-way @ 20/1 William Hill
