Whilst there might not be an Iffraaj, who won the race for Michael Jarvis when it was staged at Lingfield in 2005, in this year's Victoria Cup, it promises to be a highly informative affair.
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As is evident by Light From Mars's recent win in Newbury's Spring Cup, Dandy Nicholls is still the man to follow in competitive cavalry charges and, at this stage, he appears to have a pair of strong chances of adding the Victoria Cup to his trophy cabinet this weekend, with Nasri and Al Muheer due to line up at Ascot.
The connections of Nasri have had great success with the likes of The Tatling, Regal Parade and Evens And Odds in recent years and they look to have found another flagbearer after the horse they bought in October of last year for 20,000 gns from David Simcock won a competitive handicap at Musselburgh last time, a race in which he had subsequent winner Dubai Dynamo comfortably beaten in fifth. That performance, on just his second start for Nicholls, was not only right up there with his lifetime best, but would have also seen him very competitive in most recent renewals of the Victoria Cup and, with the trainer renowned for eking out improvement from his newer recruits, there's every chance that Nasri can continue his resurgence on Saturday.
However, as touched upon, Nicholls has another interesting entrant in the form of Al Muheer, who has certainly shaped better this season than his form figures would have you believe and, despite having recent Kempton winner Merchant of Medici just a place ahead when eleventh in the aforementioned Spring Cup last time, has been dropped a further 3 lb in the handicap. When you consider that Al Muheer produced his best ever performance when winning the International Handicap over course and distance off a BHA rating of 99 in 2009, it becomes clear that he is certainly no forlorn hope.
Of the market principals, Hawkeyethenoo is clearly capable of winning a valuable handicap this year but, although he regularly stays on well over 6f it's debatable as to whether 7f will be his optimum trip, for all that he once won a lowly handicap over 1m½f. Similar trip worries are also attached to Fathsta, whose best form has come over 6f or a sharp 7f and there's the possibility that a stiff test as this will be may just stretch his stamina. What's more, he hasn't fully convinced that he's in top form so far, making hard work of what looked a straightforward task at Warwick last time.
The Nicholls pair may have most to fear from Michael Bell's highly progressive Horseradish, who has won six out of his last nine races, producing his best performance when winning a handicap at Doncaster on his latest start. With Nasri seventh and another subsequent winner Flipando in fourteenth that day, the form looks rock-solid and, if any of these are going to emulate Iffraaj and progress into a Group horse, it's likely to be Horseradish.
Another with a leading chance is Lincoln runner-up Brae Hill, who matched his Doncaster effort there when sixth in the aforementioned Spring Cup last time and is certainly good enough to win a race of this nature. However, he's entered in a handicap at Chester on Friday and the fact that he's two from six there could mean he's more likely to take up that engagement.
Another horse to emerge from that Newbury handicap is third-placed Lowther, whose last two starts have certainly showed he's just as good on turf as he is on the all-weather. That said, whilst he's clearly capable of taking a heritage handicap this season, he's going to be vulnerable to improvers now he's running off a career-high official rating.
Walter Swinburn's horses have been in great form recently and his Gouray Girl is certainly not without a chance if replicating her win in a fillies handicap at Newbury on her final start of 2010. An encouraging seasonal debut when fifth at Yarmouth recently could well have put her spot on for this and, after just two starts over 7f, she's still unexposed over the trip.
Another yard going well is that of George Margarson and he has two live chances to land a race in which he saddled Atavus to finish sixth in 2004. Excellent Guest wasn't always the most consistent last year but put his best foot forward when making a successful return at Yarmouth recently, scoring with more in hand than the distance of a neck indicates. He too remains unexposed at 7f and has live place claims if continuing if building on that. The same goes for Imperial Guest, who finished last season with a flourish, turning in three efforts that would certainly see him competitive here.
Barry Hills won this race with Zaahid in 2008 and saddles Sunraider in this year's renewal. However, although Sunraider appeals as the type to win races this year, the fact that his best form is over 6f with cut in the ground and that he hasn't run for over seven months is enough to suggest he's one to watch rather than back this time.
Similar comments apply to William Haggas' listed-winning filly Shamandar, who's entitled to need her first race since October. The trainer also has one-time Lincoln fancy Kalk Bay entered, but he was disappointing when well held in the Spring Mile at Doncaster last time and now has something to prove dropped back in trip.
Of those yet to receive a mention, James Fanshawe's Primaeval is actually Timeform top-rated after improving drastically for the fitting of a visor at the back-end of last year, but, with a BHA rating of 86, he's looking unlikely to get a run. However, if he does sneak into the line-up, he has every chance if translating his polytrack form to turf.
King of Eden is another who's likely to be popular after his two wins this year, but he certainly needs to improve again to win a race of this nature so, if you're looking for something at a big price to sneak into the frame, then maybe consider Oasis Dancer, who is much better than his last two performances on Meydan's Tapeta surface indicate, whilst Hacienda is no forlorn hope if returning to the form of his second at Thirsk on his seasonal debut.
Recommendations
Back Nasri and Al Muheer in the Victoria Cup at Ascot