The Derby: Crowded House Rocks at 8/1

There's nothing like a few ante post bets to help you get out of bed on a cold dark winter's morning and the first thing that fills my head as I'm groping around for a pair of matching socks to wear is the thought of CROWDED HOUSE winning the Derby in June.

Of course, the race is a long way off and a lot can (and probably will) go wrong between now and then, but a top two-year-old has won the last four Derbys, with the Racing Post Trophy winner having won it twice, so Crowded House, an impressive winner at Doncaster last October, has plenty going for him. The rumour circulating around Lambourn is that connections have turned down an offer of more than £6million for the colt, who is named after the Australian rock band, and it could be the bookmakers who are rocking on the first Saturday in June.

His trainer Brian Meehan seems intent on running him in the Dante Stakes en route to Epsom, but on the evidence of his scintillating win over 1m at Doncaster, connections might be tempted to run him in the 2000 Guineas, for which he's a general 8/1. Certainly, the way he came up the hill at Newmarket when narrowly beaten by Donativum (who did the form no harm when winning at the Breeders' Cup), means he has to be taken seriously for the Guineas. However, as a three-year-old, I don't think we'll see the best of him until stepped up to middle distances and the current 8/1 (Stan James, Victor Chandler) is a good price for Derby glory.

Rip Van Winkle, a 14/1 shot for the Derby, has absolutely no chance of staying the trip at Epsom, but he looks a force to be reckoned with over 1m and is a worthy 8/1 favourite with Ladbrokes for the 2000 Guineas. His trainer Aidan O'Brien has won three of the last four runnings of the Newmarket classic and you can forget his disappointing run when seventh in the Dewhurst Stakes as he raced from a poor draw and wasn't given a hard race by any means.

Moving on to the fillies, Rainbow View was by far the best juvenile last season and she only needs to have trained on to win the 1000 Guineas, for which she's 5/2 favourite with Blue Square. However, that's not a given and her trainer John Gosden has made public his fears as to how much improvement will be forthcoming from two to three. Personally, I think FANTASIA (12/1 Coral), runner-up to Rainbow View in the Fillies' Mile at Ascot, has the greatest scope to progress and should stay the trip. At over four-times the price of the favourite, she's value too.

The Oaks market is in an embryonic state, but two once-raced fillies with big-race potential are Leocarno (16/1 BetDirect), a half sister to Derby runner-up Tartan Bearer, and Roman Empress (33/1 Stan James), a sister to another Derby second The Great Gatsby; breeding which suggests they'll have the stamina for 1m4f at three.

Recommended Bets:

Crowded House (Derby) 2pts @ 8/1 Stan James, Victor Chandler
Fantasia (1000 Guineas) 1pt each way @ 12/1 Coral

 

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Tags: 1000 Guineas,  2000 Guineas,  Aidan O’Brien,  Brian Meehan,  Crowded House,  Dante Stakes,  Donativum,  Epsom Derby,  Epsom Derby 2009,  Epsom Tips,  Fantasia,  John Gosden,  Leocarno,  Newmarket Classics,  Newmarket Tips,  Rainbow View,  Rip Van Winkle,  Roman Empress,  The Derby,  The Oaks