As Saturday signalled the end of a British flat racing season that was dominated by the mighty Sea The Stars, the final Group 1 of the year saw the birth of a new superstar; the mightily impressive St Nicholas Abbey.
Aidan O’Brien’s highly-regarded son of Montjeu unequivocally answered those who had been wondering who was this year’s champion juvenile and he put some distance between himself and his market rivals for next year’s Classics.
The race was over three furlongs from home and a vintage renewal of the Trophy featuring any number of talented and unbeaten horses was turned into a procession by what is quite clearly a very useful horse indeed. Always travelling like a dream his turn of foot was emphatic and his cruising speed equally dazzling, if he resumes his upward curve of improvement, perhaps if he even turns up in the same form, he will take the world of beating come next year.
But let’s not get carried away, talk of this horse resuming where Sea The Stars signed off is slightly premature. As St Nicholas Abbey crossed the line at Town Moor bookmakers were ducking the colt left right and centre and went 3/1 for the 2000 Guineas and 5/2 for the Epsom Derby. They were even generous enough to go 6/1 for the double.
6/1 for the double? Sea The Stars was the first horse to complete the Guineas and Derby double for twenty years and everybody knows that the son of Cape Cross was a freak of nature, a relentless machine capable of winning over any distance.
It is not so much that St Nicholas Abbey may not be capable of this, he could well be and he looks very special indeed, but while he deserves to be favourite for both races the odds being offered on this horse landing next year’s Classics are hardly generous.
In fact, they are a bit nonsensical when it comes to the 2000 Guineas betting. Punters should remember that St Nick was 20/1 to land the first colt’s Classic of the year before Saturday and at that sort of price, there is no way he could have been Aidan O’Brien’s top miler. Steinbeck ran a race full of promise in the Dewhurst the week before and they have made it public knowledge that they hold the horse in the highest regard. He cannot go from being a superb prospect to a second string overnight.
Steinbeck is not Aidan O’Brien’s only well-regarded juvenile either, with the likes of Cape Blanco, Viscount Nelson, Fencing Master and the Group 1 winning Beethoven all filling the boxes at Ballydoyle. St Nicholas Abbey does not even have the profile of a certain miler, with his sire Montjeu being a big stamina influence in his pedigree and however emphatic his Trophy victory was, it is not like he was quickening away from Canford Cliffs, Arcano and Xtension. Those in behind were all bred to relish middle distances next year, with one mile probably too short for them even now.
Even if the maestro does have St Nicholas Abbey down as his 2000 Guineas number one, it is becoming increasingly apparent that O’Brien is also happy to use the Newmarket showpiece as a trial and he is not against using Group 1’s as a day out for his horses. Take Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman in this year’s renewal for example. Rip Van Winkle was heavily supported all summer, only to turn up at HQ looking as if he were 50% fit with Mastercraftsman tapped for toe down the field. We all know what they have gone on to achieve since and if St Nicholas Abbey is O’Brien’s Derby horse (which he rightfully is) then if he runs in the 2000 Guineas, is he really going to be fully wound up?
His performance was sensational and his place as champion juvenile secured, but with so many unanswered questions and with so long to wait until the 2000 Guineas (we will not know who Johnny Murtagh will ride until two days before) his price is unappealing. Punters will need no reminding that he would be the first horse in almost 40 years to do the Racing Post Trophy and 2000 Guineas double and while I am not saying that he is not capable of doing a ‘High Top,’ it is not a particularly attractive punting proposal.
The Derby is a different betting proposition altogether and he may already be value at 11/4 (William Hill) after his sensational victory in what is primarily a trial for future Derby horses. Provided he winters well and gets to Epsom in one piece, it is very difficult, almost unimaginable to think there is any horse capable of improving past him between now and then.
Whatever path Aidan O’Brien has in mind for his latest superstar, his victory was a serious statement and the quotes he has received for next year says it all about the impression he created at Doncaster. Only half a year to wait until we find out whether we have witnessed the new Sea The Stars.
