Ladies Day it may well be but Thursday’s Royal Ascot card looks as tough as it gets punting-wise and the feature race, the Ascot Gold Cup (3.50), is no exception.
2:30 Norfolk Stakes (Group 2) 5f
DINKUM DIAMOND (7/2 bet365) blitzed a good field in the National Stakes last time and will take some beating here. Henry Candy, his trainer, is not renowned for two-year-old winners at the Royal meeting, but he’s knows a good sprinter when he sees one and this son of Aussie Rules has apparently been showing up well at home against older stablemates. As he coped well with the stiff 5f finish at Sandown, this extra furlong won’t pose him any problems and he can land the hat-trick under Dane O’Neil.
3:05 Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2) (Fillies) 1m4f
The form fillies in this race don’t set an exacting standard, which makes me think it will go to an improver and Henry Cecil’s PRINCIPAL ROLE (5/1 Boylesports) fits the bill nicely after her narrow victory over Fatanah in the Swettenham Stud Stakes at Newbury last time out. The extra two furlongs of this race will be right up her street so I’d expect her to confirm form with the runner-up, who is not guaranteed to stay, and that may be enough to give her trainer Henry Cecil a second winner at the meeting after Timepiece obliged on Wednesday.
3:50 Gold Cup (Group 1) 2m4f
Cecil dominated this race back in the late 70’s and early 80’s but it’s 23 years since he last tasted success with Paean, ridden by my all-time favourite jockey Steve Cauthen. Happy days! Can he roll back the years here with his improving stayer Manifest? Bookmakers clearly think so as he’s been put in around the 10/3 mark, although Ladbrokes go a standout 4/1 and they may well be right to take him on. Sure, he was impressive when winning by eight lengths at York, but he didn’t beat much that day and, while he shapes as if he’ll stay further, this trip is unknown territory for him.
I’m loathe to bet against him but you can’t let the heart rule the head in these matters and DARLEY SUN could be the forgotten horse. I fancied him to win at Sandown on his reappearance but a tactical race over 2m was never going to suit this resolute galloper and he should really come into his own over this marathon trip. Frankie has deserted him for Kite Wood but it must have been a tough decision and William Buick is more than an able substitute. At a standout 16/1 with Ladbrokes (hope they are wrong here), he merits a small each-way interest against some doubtful stayers.
4:25 Britannia Stakes (Heritage Handicap) 1m
This is seriously competitive but I can’t let HYPNOTIZED go unbacked at 11/1 with bet365, who promise to be best price on every horse running in races at the meeting shown live on BBC – they are also Best Odds Guaranteed. There is a school of thought that Polytrack winners do well at the ‘new’ Ascot so the fact Hypnotized was successful on that surface on his reappearance at Kempton is encouraging, and he’s since run two good races in defeat, including when beaten a neck on his latest start at Goodwood. A slow pace and the course’s rolling contours contributed to that defeat and the stronger pace over a stiff mile here should prove ideal. He likes to come late so will need the gaps to come at the right time but in Jamie Spencer he has the perfect partner.
5:00 Hampton Court Stakes (Listed Race) 1m2f
Kieren Fallon rates AFSARE his ‘best chance of the meeting’ and it’s hard to disagree. The Luca Cumani-trained colt looked a potential Group horse when trouncing some classy rivals at Doncaster last time and this Listed contest should prove to be an ideal stepping stone to greater things. Blue Square go 7/2 and that may not be beaten
5:35 King George V Stakes (Handicap) 1m4f
The market for this race is headed by LONDON STRIPE and although I’m wary of tipping another favourite on what is a fiendishly-difficult card, he does have plenty going for him, not least his connections. His trainer Sir Michael Stoute has sent out four winners of this race in the last 12 years, including a 1-2 in the 2004 renewal, and I suspect this has been the plan for London Stripe for some time, while his pilot Ryan Moore is riding out of his skin. Ladbrokes go a measly 7/2 but there is plenty of 9/2 around and I’m hopeful of 5/1 in the morning. Don’t take anything less.
Selections:-
2.30 Dinkum Diamond
3.05 Principal Role
3.50 Darley Sun (each-way)
4.25 Hypnotized (each-way)
5.00 Afsare
5.35 London Stripe
