There have been some shock results on the all-weather recently, prompting many punters to throw the form book out the window. That may have something to do with the current spell of cold weather but in any case, when form is taking a back seat it often pays to go back to basics such as track bias, draw and trainer form. Here are a few pointers to help you turn a profit on the all-weather in the coming weeks.
1. Follow fit and in-form horses
That may be stating the bleedin' obvious but with many training establishments suffering from frozen facilities, it makes sense to concentrate on those horses who have been kept on the go as they will already be race fit, unlike those horses who have been standing in their boxes. Last time out winners turning out again quickly under a penalty should prove profitable to follow over the next few weeks.
2. Hot trainers
It follows that certain trainers are better equipped to deal with the cold weather and it's unlikely the runners from the in-form yards on the Racing Post hot trainers list (Alan McCabe and Jim Boyle spring to mind) will want for fitness.
3. Don't follow the crowd
Sometimes it pays to go against preconceived ideas concerning track biases as this is where the value lies. Take Lingfield, for example. It's reputation as a track that suits closers (horses coming off the pace) is well justified as those leading around the final turn often go for home too soon and get caught close home. For this reason, front-runners are often over-looked and it's possible to unearth some big priced winners just by identifying those horses which are likely to get easy leads.
4. The law of Southwell
The Nottinghamshire track is a law to itself. Here, it's perceived that prominent racers are at an advantage as they are able to avoid the worst of the kickback. That may be so but the recent cold spell has led to the track being prepared differently. Deeper harrowing has meant the surface is riding even slower than normal and as a result more front runners have been running out of gas in the stamina-sapping conditions. Naturally, this gives the strong closers more of a chance and this is not always reflected in the betting.
5. Horses for courses
Following on from the above, more weight should be placed on Southwell form when analysing races at the track as few horses seem to be equally good on Fibresand and Polytrack. On the flip side, be wary of backing horses that have shown their best form on the Fibresand in races on the three Polytrack courses - Wolverhampton, Kempton and Lingfield - as they are unlikely to transfer their form.
6. High draw=high profits at Kempton
There are some marked draw biases on the all-weather tracks and none more so than at Kempton, where horses drawn near the inside rail (high), particularly in races staged over 7f or shorter, enjoy a considerable advantage due to the configuration of the track. The reason being the runners are on the turn for much of the early part of the race and those on the inside can conserve their energy for the home straight.
7. Keep it simple
If you really can't be bothered with all the above and want a simple system to follow then try this one. Back all horses aged three or older in 5f or 6f races, providing they won last time on the all-weather and are turning out again within seven days. Followers of this system since January 2005 would have backed 111 winners (from 407 bets) and made a £1 level stakes profit of £74.92.
Good luck with your all-weather betting!
