Sixteen horses are set to go post in Sunday's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and I've assessed each of their chances in race card order, before giving my idea of the winner:
1. Workforce
Became only the sixth horse to complete the Derby-Arc double last season when winning here 12 months ago but has not looked as good this season, tasting defeat in two of his three races, including when hanging badly in the King George, and he wouldn't want the ground too quick. Back-to-back winners of the Arc are rare - you have to go back to Alleged in 1978 to find the last one - and all five of the successful three-year-olds to have defended their crown since 1994 have been turned over. On that basis, he has a mountain to climb.
2. St Nicholas Abbey
Smart juvenile and looked back to his best when winning at Chester and Epsom earlier this season, before being found out in the King George and Prix Foy. He will struggle to get competitive.
3. Silver Pond
Won all three starts as a three-year-old but has found life tougher this season, adding a solitary win from six starts, and has been well beaten on both starts in Group 1 company. Impossible to fancy.
4.Hiruno D'Amour
Was probably flattered to finish so close (short-neck) to Sarafina in the Prix Foy over course and distance last time as the winner was not fully cranked up, but he would have needed the outing too and will be doing his best work late on having won over 2m in Japan. Given the plumb draw in stall one.
5. Nakayama Festa
Last year's runner-up arrives here on the back of an interrupted campaign, having picked up an injury in the Japan Cup last November, and it's hard to tell whether he's as good as 12 months ago judged on his last of four effort in the Prix Foy. Has been drawn widest of all in stall 16 and that's a serious negative.
6. So You Think
Top-class Australian horse who has won four of his five starts since being switched to Aidan O'Brien at the start of the season, including the Coral Eclipse at Sandown when easily beating Workforce. However, all his wins in Europe have come over 1m2f and while he promises to stay (has been seeing out his races well and finished third in the Melbourne Cup over 2m), it's hard to be dogmatic about it. His draw in stall 14 is not ideal either.
7. Sarafina
Would have pushed Workforce very close 12 months ago had she not been virtually knocked over and knocked back to last turning in for home, before finishing like a train for third. This season, she has been given a classic French Arc preparation, returning in the Prix Foy after a summer break to win her third race on the bounce, despite being in need of the run. Her draw in stall 13 is not ideal and as a come-from-behind performer she will need the gaps to come at the right time, but she's one of the more likely winners.
8. Snow Fairy
Enjoyed a brilliant three-year-old campaign that saw her win four Group 1s (two against the colts) and has shown in three runs this term that she retains all her ability. Made So You Think pull out all the stops in the Irish Champion, when going down by half a length, and could reverse the form over this extra two furlongs.
9. Treasure Beach
Improved markedly from two to three, beating Nathaniel on his reappearance at Chester, before finishing a neck second in the Derby behind Pour Moi, who was ante post favourite for this race, and winning the Irish Derby. He followed that with a below-par effort in the Grand Prix du Paris but bounced back to form when winning a Grade One in the States last time. Not out of it by any means.
10. Meandre
Consistent sort who rattled off a hat-trick of wins in the summer, including the Grand Prix du Paris, where his rivals included Reliable Man, but was then beaten fair and square by that horse in the Prix Niel last time. Supplemented at a cost of 100,000 Euros on Thursday.
11. Masked Marvel
This year's St Leger winner was another supplementary entry and that might be money well spent if he can reproduce his Doncaster form and cope with the drop back in distance. Not many horses win this race as an afterthought, though, and he may have peaked too soon.
12. Reliable Man
Lightly-raced French colt who has had the copybook preparation for this race, winning his first three starts in the space of two months, including the French Derby, and culminating in an easy win in the Prix Niel (traditionally the strongest trial) last time. His sole defeat came in the Grand Prix de Paris, which was run on very quick ground, and he was a big drifter on Betfair at the start of the week with drying conditions forecast. However, that might have been an overreaction as the ground is sure to be heavily watered and he will be hard to keep out of the frame from what looks a good draw in stall seven.
13. Shareta
Successful at Group 3 and Listed level but not up to this class and is likely running to ensure a fast pace for her stablemate Sarafina. As both are owned by the Aga Khan, they will be coupled for betting purposes.
14. Testosterone
Consistent filly who hasn't finished outside the first three in six career starts, winning twice, but is taking a big hike in class here and it will be a big surprise if she is placed even.
15. Danedream
This German-trained filly fully deserves her place in the line up judged on her win in the Italian Oaks and a brace of Group 1s in her native country. More is needed here, though.
16. Galikova
Completes a strong home challenge having proved her stamina for 1m4f with victory in the Prix Vermeille last time out. The Freddy Head-trained filly seemed to relish the extra distance that day, running on strongly to beat Testosterone, and she has the beating of Reliable Man, having beat Prix Niel fourth Colombian at Deauville last month by further than Reliable Man did. Has never raced on ground faster than good to soft, which has to be a concern for her backers, but she has a peach of a draw in stall four.
Verdict:
This is a wide open renewal and to make matters worse there is a large field, thus increasing the chances of trouble in-running. Luck will no doubt play a part then, as will the ground, which is likely to be riding on the fast side of good, although it will interesting to hear what the jockeys say after the earlier races on the card as regards that. I've a feeling it won't be too fast, in which case I give a big chance to RELIABLE MAN (12/1 William Hill), who looks to have all the right credentials and with just five runs under his belt is almost certainly capable of better still. He can become the eighth three-year-old to win the Arc in the last nine years.
Sticking with the classic generation, I'm struggling to understand why TREASURE BEACH is such a big price given the level of his form. Apart from one below par in the Grand Prix De Paris (1m2f), he's done precious little wrong and his stamina is not in doubt, unlike his much shorter-priced stablemate So You Think. I suggest you have a small each-way bet at the 33/1 with Ladbrokes and look to go in again on the Pari-Mutuel (he will be coupled with St Nicholas Abbey) as he might be even bigger.
Good luck with your Arc bets!
