As competitive an event as can be imagined, the 2011 renewal is high on class and on numbers. Timeform delve into the field in an attempt to find some value...
The Paddy Power Gold Cup, formerly known as the Mackeson Gold Cup, was first run in 1960 and in recent years boasts a rather recognisable roll of honour, with Tranquil Sea, Gold Cup hero Imperial Commander, Exotic Dancer, Our Vic and Fondmort being just a few to power up the famous Cheltenham hill to success.
Not among the list of winners, however, is four-time champion trainer Paul Nicholls, who has saddled 17 unsuccessful contenders since 2001. Any race that is proving elusive is sure to play on a trainer like Nicholls' mind, and he looks to be launching an all-out assault on the 2011 renewal.
Spearheading the Nicholls attack on the race is the highly promising Mon Parrain, who has been seen on a British racecourse on just two occasions. His first appearance on these shores came with a destructive win at Sandown, cantering home 22 lengths clear of Appleaday and the remainder. Although there wasn't a great deal of depth in that race, there was no denying the style of his win, and he looked destined for far greater things.
He then went on to look the winner for the vast majority of the race in the Topham at Aintree, before being collared on the run-in by course specialist Always Waining. The selection of that race in itself is a testament to Mon Parrain's jumping, being somewhat thrown in at the deep end in taking on the National fences, but he completely justified the decision by jumping very fluently throughout. He is clearly open to further improvement, highlighted by the 'p' attached to his Timeform rating of c155, and he looks to have a solid chance of getting his trainer of the mark in this event.
As well as Mon Parrain, Nicholls also has Poquelin and Aerial entered. The former, a Cheltenham specialist and second in this race two years ago, heads the weights and will most likely by ridden by a conditional jockey that in order to reduce his burden. His fifth in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby on his reappearance can near enough be written off as he clearly doesn't stay three miles, but it will have served as a nice introduction to the season and he will enter the race in top condition.
Poquelin's participation will keep the weights down for the rest of the field, including Aerial who, like Mon Parrain, has seen a British racecourse just twice since moving from France. His debut at Wincanton was particularly impressive, stylishly pulling clear of what looked a competitive field to win by nine lengths. He has reportedly had a breathing operation over the summer, which could unlock the potential he almost certainly possesses, and he makes a considerable amount of appeal in the place market.
The leading trio from last season's Jewson Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham Festival all reoppose on Saturday, and it will be interesting to see the outcome. Third placed back in March, Loosen My Load is certainly a useful chaser, but he could well finish behind his two rivals once again as they may be improving at a greater rate.
Wishfull Thinking went on to impress when winning a Grade 2 at Aintree and a Grade A big-field handicap at Punchestown, and he could be ready for even bigger and better things this season, signalled by his standing towards the fore of the Ryanair Chase market. The suspicion is, however, that his best will arrive later in the season and Saturday's race may just be a stepping stone to more illustrious targets.
Similar sentiments apply to Noble Prince, winner of the Jewson, who currently heads the Ryanair market. Imperial Commander took the PP Gold Cup on his way to the Ryanair, and Noble Prince demonstrated that he was in good heart on his return at Naas, albeit in a race that was run at a crawl. He is taken to confirm the form with Wishfull Thinking and Loosen My Load, but he doesn't smack as tremendous value at the 11.0 currently available.
One who reeks of the stuff, particularly in the place market, is Oiseau de Nuit, winner of the Johnny Henderson Grand Annual at last season's Festival. He is somewhat of a mercurial character, often dropping himself out in races before staying on late, but he appears to have cleaned up his act since that Cheltenham success, finishing second in the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree and impressing when third in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter on his reappearance. He remains on a fair mark and will be suited by the likely strong pace of this race, so really does look a good place bet at the 14.0 currently available.
One further runner of note is the Ferdy Murphy-trained Divers, who made a somewhat disappointing seasonal return when pulled up at Carlisle. His 2010/11 campaign was one of gradual improvement, culminating in Cheltenham Festival success, and this race was put forward by his trainer as his autumnal target. Therefore, it isn't difficult to imagine a drastic turn around in fortunes, but it is hard to be confident on the back of that lacklustre display.
You could go on and on talking about horses that are in with a chance in the PP Gold Cup, and it would drive you crazy attempting to narrow it down to a sole selection. The smart money is likely to be in the place market, in which Aerial and Oiseau de Nuit make most appeal. It's arguable that there are more likely winners, but Saturday's race may well be Aerial's prime target this season and looks to have a great chance of making the places for Paul Nicholls off a light weight. Oiseau de Nuit, if in the same form as his Grand Annual win, may have snuck under the radar slightly and is another one to keep on side.
Recommendations
Back Aerial for a place @ 5.1 with
Betfair.
Back Oiseau de Nuit for a place @ 14.0 with
Betfair.