The Paddy Power Chase over 3m (2.30) is the most competitive race at the Leopardstown Christmas meeting and this year's renewal is no exception with 28 runners set to go post.
As you'd expect, a case can be made for several and that is reflected in the betting with Ladbrokes going 10/1 'the field', with Becauseicouldn'tsee and Pomme Tiepy sharing favouritism at 10/1. The last-named has no doubt been prepared for this race by his astute trainer Willie Mullins but has not won since the 2007/08 season when able to take advantage of sex/age allowances. Only fifth on her reappearance at Navan, behind three of her rivals here, she will have to step up markedly on recent form to take this.
The same to some extent can be said of Becauseicouldn'tsee, who reappeared over hurdles at Thurles in November, when finishing fourth of six, but is expected to show considerable improvement in his second season over fences. The seven-year-old is relatively inexperienced with just nine runs under rules, but two of those resulted in victories and the latest was a second place in the 4m National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, in which he was was leading two for home before being caught close home by Poker De Sivola.
His trainer Noel Glynn describes him as huge and admits he minds him, which is why he doesn't run often, but is aiming high and has his sights on the Grand National in April. To ensure his Aintree ticket, though, he will need to rise up the weights and victory in one of these big handicap chases would do very nicely. Granted, this trip may be on the short side for him but stamina will be all-important in the testing conditions and he does make his handicap debut off what his trainer believes is a "very nice mark". Only 8/1 with some firms, the 10/1 on offer should be snapped up.
Of course, it would foolish to be too confident in a race of this nature and, of the rest, you've got to give Cork National winner Streets Of Gold plenty of respect as he still looks nicely weighted on 10st 6lb, a pound lower than Becauseicouldn'tsee. Leanne is also worth a mention as she was an excellent third 12 months ago and returned to form with a win at Clonmel in October, although a career-best effort is required here off a 10lb higher mark. The sole British-trained runner Stormin Exit wouldn't be out of it either. The seven-year-old was progressive last season and was still going well when falling in the Grand Sefton at Aintree on his reappearance, but the selection looks better handicapped.
Gordon Elliott's recent Punchestown winner Beautiful Sound would have been an interesting runner at the bottom of the weights but is first reserve here. If he fails to get in, he may be rerouted to Limerick on Thursday and shouldn't be missed there.
Earlier on the card, arguably the best two hurdlers in Ireland, HURRICANE FLY and Solwhit, clash in the Grade 1 paddypower.com iPhone App December Festival Hurdle (1.55). The recent score between them stands at 2-1 in Hurricane Fly's favour, which includes a brilliant win in the Irish Champion Hurdle in April and the Hatton's Grace Hurdle two weeks ago. Willie Mullins' six-year-old is as short as 4/1 for the Champion Hurdle in March and, while I'm not convinced he jumps well enough at speed to be win at Cheltenham, he should continue to mop up these slowly-run, small-field Irish races and should beat his great rival again here, albeit at odds-on.
Recommended Bet:
Becauseicouldn'tsee 2pts @ 10/1 Ladbrokes
