Kauto Star is as short as 7/2 with William Hill to make it a hat-trick of Order Of Merit* titles this season, but 5/1 is freely available with bet365, Coral and Blue Square. So, should we be taking advantage of their generosity?
Frankly, no. While Paul Nicholls' former champion chaser has the Betfair Chase, King George and Gold Cup on his agenda, he's unlikely to accrue as many points as last season, when he ran in six qualifying races, winning three (all Grade 1's) and finishing runner-up in the other three. According to his trainer, the Gold Cup is likely to be his fourth race of his campaign and that's if everything goes to plan - which it seldom does in jump racing. Besides, he will face some stiff competition in the aforementioned races, not least from his stablemates Neptune Collongues and Denman, so the 5/1 hardly screams value..
Master Minded, another Nicholls inmate, is 4/1 favourite in some lists, but he too can be backed at 5/1 (Blue Square). He was a most impressive of the Champion Chase in March and, despite being beaten over 2m4f at Aintree (where he didn't stay), he is going to be extremely hard to beat over two miles this season. The problem with backing him is that he too is going to have a limited schedule. The Tingle Creek and Champion Chase are reportedly his main objectives, with a possible tilt at the Victor Chandler in between but, even if he won all three of those races, his points tally might not be enough.
Other chasers flying high in the betting are Voy Por Ustedes (8/1 bet365) and Knowhere (25/1 William Hill). The latter already has points on the board after winning the first qualifying race, Aintree's Old Roan Chase, but he's unlikely to be campaigned aggressively from now on, while Voy Por Ustedes (beaten in the Old Roan) seems to reserve his performances for Cheltenham.
Which brings me on to the hurdlers who it's safe to say have an equal chance of winning the competition. You may remember, champion stayer Inglis Drever won the inaugural OOM in 2004/05, while the consistent Royal Shakespeare took the title the following season. Last season, David Pipe's staying hurdler Lough Derg made Kauto pull out all the stops, so is there another hurdler waiting in the wings to topple Kauto?
Leading Champion Hurdle contenders Katchit (10/1 Coral), Binocular (16/1 Blue Square) and Crack Away Jack (20/1 Skybet) are obvious candidates. However, competition is going to be fierce in the two mile division this season and, for that reason, I'm looking to back something that is effective over further. One that fits the bill nicely is MOBAASHER (33/1 Coral), yet another Paul Nicholls inmate. OK, he needs to improve having won just once from six starts, that being a relatively modest 3m handicap at Cheltenham in April, but he's only five and I very much doubt he has reached his peak.
Further encouragement can be gleaned from a recent stable interview with his trainer, who reports him "working like a different horse" since being operated on over the summer to correct a breathing problem. Due to reappear in the John Smith's Hurdle over 3m at Wetherby on Saturday (a qualifying race of course), he's likely to run in all the big staying hurdles and is expected to develop into a genuine World Hurdle contender. If all goes to plan (touch wood!), the 33/1 could look massive come March, so get on.
Recommended Bet:
Mobaasher 2pts each way @ 33/1 Coral (1/4 odds, 1.2.3)
*The overall winner of the Order of Merit is the horse that has accrued the most number of points in all British Grade 1, 2 and 3 chases and hurdles (excluding those restricted to novices) taking place from 25 October 2008 to 25 April 2009 inclusive.
