What are the best bets at Newmarket on Saturday?
2:05 Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) 1m
This is a wide-open renewal of this Group 2 contest for two-year-olds with five of the seven runners in with a realistic chance. Therefore, I was a bit surprised to see Farhaan trading as short as 11/4 (3/1 generally) as his form, while progressive, is still some way short of that shown by the likes of Rockinante and Tenth Star, who have already won in Listed company. Besides, prior to Frankel winning last year at 1/3, favourites have a dodgy record with only two of the previous 10 being successful.
I doubt there is another Frankel in this year's field but one horse with bags of potential is WROTE, one of three Aidan O'Brien-trained representatives. Granted, it was only a Galway nursery he won last time but he did so in impressive fashion and it was the same nursery won by last year's third and stablemate Treasure Beach. It's hard to work out which of the O'Brien runners is most fancied on jockey bookings but it's worth noting that Wrote's rider Jamie Spencer has a 50 per cent strike rate for the yard in Britain and Ireland this year. Ladbrokes' 4/1, therefore, could be a shade of value.
2:35 Jaguar Cars Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) 6f
This race revolves around Lowther Stakes winner BEST TERMS who must surely take all the beating if reproducing that form and the vibes coming out of the stable this week have been positive, with her trainer saying: "Things have been straightforward since the Lowther and we're very happy with her. We won the Cheveley Park with Indian Ink but this filly is a real two-year-old sprinter. It will take a good one to lower her colours."
The fact she's already beaten five of today's rivals, including Shamoos the last two times they've met, only adds to her claims and I'm loathe to put one up against her on account of her price alone, which is admittedly short at 11/8 (Betfred). If pressed for a value alternative, it would have to be Irish Raider Lightening Pearl (7/2 Ladbrokes), who sluiced home in a Group 3 contest last time and is clearly improving fast. However, like Caspar Netscher last weekend, I'm going to stick with the favourite, who can become the fourth filly in the past decade to land the Lowther-Cheveley Park double.
3:10 Kingdom of Bahrain Sun Chariot Stakes (Group 1) 1m
We have another short-priced favourite here in the shape of SAHPRESSA (2/1 bet365) and she's a worthy one too having landed this Group 1 contest for the past two years. Her French trainer Rod Collet will no doubt have trained her with another crack in mind and she's the one they've all got to beat. On form, she has nothing to fear from last year's second and fourth, Strawberrydaiquiri and Music Show respectively, and also holds Together on a line through Immortal Verse.
She does have to reverse form, however, with Timepiece, who beat her into second in the Falmouth Stakes on the July Course here back in the summer. I've watched that race several times and, while Tom Queally gave the winner a peach of a a ride when nicking it from the front, there was no doubt that Sahpressa would have won had her jockey Christophe Lemaire shown a bit more tactical nous, leaving it far too late to deliver his challenge. He surely won't make the same mistake twice and I'd expect him to sit much closer to the pace before pouncing in the final furlong. The rapidly improving Irish filly Alanza has to be respected and might give Sahpressa most to do, but the French horse is a class apart and can land the hat-trick.
3:50 Betfred Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) 1m1f
With a maximum field of 35 runners set to go to post, I feel a bit silly tipping one of the favourites in the shape of CRY FURY, but he looks to have plenty going for him and I think he could go off even shorter than the current 11/1 on offer with the sponsors Betfred. Granted, he has to put a poor run at Doncaster last time behind him but that race was a slowly run affair over a mile and massively favoured the speed horses, like the winner Man Of Action, who re-opposes on 4lb worse terms. The combination of an extra furlong here, a stiff uphill finish and an end-to-end gallop, will bring stamina into play and the selection has that in spades having won over 1m3f.
Sure, it's a tough race to win but his trainer Roger Charlton has managed the feat twice, the last time with the well-backed Blue Monday in 2005, and he will have had this race in mind for Cry Fury for a long time. Soft ground would have been a worry but the conditions will be perfect for the three-year-old, who loves to hear his hooves rattle, and he looks well drawn too in stall 18 - most winners in the past decade were drawn between stalls 17 and 28. The icing on the cake is the booking of Richard Hughes and he's a rock solid each-way bet for me with the sponsors, especially as they are offering five places.
Selections:-
2.05 Wrote
2.35 Best Terms
3.10 Sahpressa
3.50 Cry Fury (each-way)
