Only five horses have been declared for this Saturday's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes (due off 4.30pm) but it still looks like one of the classiest renewals for years.
With 100/1 shot Debussy on pacemaker duties for Rewilding, this can safely be narrowed down to four - but what a quartet! The current favourite Workforce needs no introduction but just in case you've been in hiding for the past 12 months or so, here's a quick reminder of his CV: brilliant seven length winner of last year's Derby and proved that was no fluke by following up in the Arc. Made a winning reappearance this season in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes but was then beaten in the Eclipse by So You Think, whose superior turn of foot proved decisive over the 1m2f trip.
On that evidence, it doesn't take a genius to work out that Sir Michael Stoute's four-year-old is going to be suited by the extra two furlongs he will travel here and the recent rain is in his favour too, as it will help blunt the speed of his rivals and bring his undoubted stamina into play. The rain has been the big factor in the ante post market with Workforce now into as low as 6/5, having been available at 4/1 only last weekend - a pleasing workout last Sunday was also a contributing factor. With Ballydoyle's St Nicholas Abbey on the slide and out to as big as 11/4 (Paddy Power), it's inconceivable he won't go off favourite now.
However, that was the case 12 months ago - well-backed into 8/11 on the day - and he got stuffed nearly 17 lengths by Harbinger! A massive bounce after a hard race at Epsom was the most plausible explanation put forward for that crushing defeat and that might well have been a factor, but it's still a worry nonetheless. Not all horses act around Ascot and, while his trainer seemingly has no concerns about going back there, I'm not so quick to forgive him that shocker. Besides, he's up against two top-notchers in St Nicholas Abbey and REWILDING, and the latter has already proved himself well suited to Ascot's quirky terrain in the Prince of Wales's Stakes when doing something Workforce couldn't do, beating So You Think over 1m2f.
The Godolphin star was only third to Workforce in last year's Derby but wasn't suited to Epsom and was still very much on the weak side. This season, he's looked a much stronger horse in winning the Sheema Classic and Prince of Wales's Stakes and despite Aidan O'Brien's assertion that So You Think was "undercooked" in the latter race, the best horse won the day. He's stepping up in trip here but his trainer Mahmood Al Zarooni has always considered him better over 1m4f anyway, and the prospect of soft ground shouldn't deter backers as, while three of his four wins have come on 'good' ground, he has form on soft too.
So, while I reckon it will be close between the two, the bet simply has to be Rewilding at 7/2 with William Hill, who clearly think St Nicholas Abbey has a better chance of upsetting the favourite as they are quoting 5/2. I'm glad they do as it means we can get better odds on the selection but I disagree strongly. Granted, the Ballydoyle runner was impressive when winning the Ormonde Stakes at Chester and when beating Midday in the Coronation Cup but this race is much stronger and, while I'm not saying he can't win it, he's a clear third favourite in my book.
The other runner of note is Nathaniel (7/1 bet365), who as a three-year-old gets a massive weight allowance. He was my 'banker' bet at Royal Ascot and he duly obliged but has much more on his plate here against some brilliant older horses and I think the best he can hope for is second, a safe distance behind Rewilding, who looks a knocking good bet at 7/2 to give Godolphin and Frankie Dettori their sixth and fifth wins in the race respectively.
Recommended Bet:
Rewilding 4pts @ 7/2 William Hill
