Christmas is coming and the goose is getting fat but you won't find any plump turkeys running in Boxing Day's King George VI Chase (due off 3.10pm).
The Kempton Grade 1 rarely fails to disappoint as a spectacle and you can be sure that each of the eight runners for the Kempton Grade 1 will be fit and ready to go, including last year's impressive winner Long Run. A lack of a recent run was put forward as an excuse for his disappointing run on his reappearance in the Betfair Chase where, after several momentum-losing errors, he was firmly put in his place by a rejuvenated and "mega fit" Kauto Star. With that run under his belt, there will be no such excuses this time and it's worth remembering that he was soundly beaten on his first run last season in the Paddy Power before coming here and slamming his stablemate Riverside Theatre by 12 lengths, with Kauto Star another seven lengths away in third. So, can we expect the same again this time?
Well, one thing's for certain, he won't be anywhere near the 7/1 he was sent off 12 months ago with 5/4 the best on offer this time, and it's hard to see him going off much bigger. Of course, we now know what a class act he is after his superb display when winning the Gold Cup and he might not have finished improving at the age of six, so he's fully entitled to be a short price. However, his tendency to make mistakes is a worry and, whilst he is sure to have been well schooled since Haydock, his jumping is again going to be put under extreme pressure by the likes of Kauto and Master Minded. That pair can claim another advantage too - their professional jockeys. Don't get me wrong, Long Run's rider Sam Waley-Cohen is one of the best amateurs around but I thought his lack of experience showed in the Betfair and who's to say it won't show again in the pressure cooker that is the King George.
Put simply, there are better 5/4 shots running every day of the week and I'd personally want 7/4 before even contemplating getting involved.
Having read this far (thanks for persevering!), you are probably expecting me to tip up four-time winner Kauto Star but, having been well-backed into 7/2, the same can be said of his price and, besides, I've got serious reservations about him reproducing the form he showed in the Betfair Chase, which by his trainer's own admission was his "Gold Cup". Of course, it was fantastic to see the old boy roll back the years at Haydock and victory on Boxing Day would undoubtedly be his finest hour, but can he peak again after such a hard race last time? I have my doubts and suspect he might even regress, which would leave him vulnerable to younger and sharper rivals. If he wins, I'm going to sound a fool (wouldn't be the first time!) but he's no more than just a fair price now.
Still, I'd much rather back him than his stablemate Master Minded, who is trying 3m for the first time and has been unconvincing in his two starts this season. You could argue that he's been trained specifically with this race in mind and his trainer Paul Nicholls clearly thinks he will stay but the evidence of his most recent runs suggests that he's nowhere near the same horse who was such an impressive winner of the Champion Chase in 2008, and he hardly looked like he was crying out for 3m when beating Somersby over 2m3f at Ascot last time. All that is in some way compensated by his price of 13/2 (Totesport) but I wouldn't be tempted to part with my readies at 10/1 even and I'd go as far as saying he's a place lay at the current 2.48 on Betfair.
With confirmed front runners Nacarat and Golan Way in the race, they won't be hanging around for sure and horses will need to get home, which could also be a problem for last season's Arkle winner Captain Chris (8/1 Ladbrokes). I can see Somersby (12/1 Blue Square) running well and finishing in the frame as well might DIAMOND HARRY, who I thought ran really well in the Betfair Chase where he matched strides with Kauto for much of the way and even looked like the winner turning in for home. That was his first run for 13 months so he can be expected to come on for that run and his trainer Nick Williams is in much better form now. For an eight-year-old, he has relatively few miles on the clock and improvement can be anticipated on what will be just his sixth start over fences. Granted, he has 16lb to find with Long Run on the ratings but they are not always the best guide and I've a feeling this race is not as clear cut as the betting suggests. It won't hurt either that he will be ridden by Barry Geraghty, who rides Kempton better than anyone.
At 16/1 with bet365, he's worth a small interest but the smart bet is to take the 10/1 each-way in Paddy Power's "w/o Long Run" market, which ensures a maximum payout even if he finishes second to the favourite and even a small profit for finishing third.
Recommended Bets:
Diamond Harry 0.5pt @ 16/1 bet365 / 1.5pts each-way @ 10/1 "w/o Long Run" @ 10/1 Paddy Power
