Sea The Stars is 4/5 favourite with Coral to complete the Epsom-Irish Derby double at the weekend.
Since 1962, 10 Epsom Derby winners have failed to follow up in the Irish version (14 have done the double), but Sea The Stars looked a bit special when beating the re-opposing Fame And Glory and Masterofthehorse, so it's a slight stretch of the imagination to see either of those two reversing the placings here. However, it might not be as cut and dried as the odds suggest.
Sure, John Oxx's colt silenced those who had doubted his stamina for 1m4f when striding just under two lengths clear of Fame And Glory at Epsom, but the Irish race will be run much differently. On Derby day, the jockey on the runner-up Seamus Heffernan admitted that if given the chance he would have made more use of the colt's undoubted stamina, and his trainer Aidan O'Brien, who is mob-handed in his bid to win this race for the sixth time, will be keen to to ensure a strong even gallop to expose any chinks in the favourite's armour.
That could leave his jockey Mick Kinane with a difficult choice to make. Stay up with the pace and he will use up valuable energy too early leaving him vulnerable at the business end of the race. Lay too far back and Fame And Glory will get first run on him and won't be easily caught when in full flow. And beating Fame And Glory again is not his only worry as that one's stablemate Masterofthehorse (4/1 bet365), who was finishing best of all at Epsom, will no doubt have a say in matters too.
Personally, I'd love to see Sea The Stars win as racing needs champions and he has the potential to be one of the best we've seen for years. However, when it comes to betting matters the head should always rule and I suspect that 'Team Ballydoyle' will somehow contrive to get him beat, and Fame And Glory, with Johnny Murtagh taking over, is the horse most likely to benefit.
Unfortunately, the early 4/1 has evaporated but 11/4 (William Hill) is still a fair price, and would look very tasty indeed should connections of Sea The Stars decide to skip the race and go for the Coral-Eclipse next weekend instead. A decision will be made as late as Sunday morning, but deep down I hope he runs as the race will be a lot poorer without him.
Recommended Bet:
Fame And Glory 2pts @ 11/4 William Hill