Backing the winner of the Imperial Cup used to be easy – just get on the fancied Pipe runner. However, after David Pipe’s ante-post favourite Hunterview failed to make the cut, it’s back to the drawing board for what looks a fiendishly difficult handicap to solve on paper.
Let’s start by picking out some key trends and it’s largely thanks to David Pipe and his father Martin before him that favourites have a tremendous recent record, and backing them all blind would have yielded a level stakes profit of £9.33 in the last 10 years to a £1 stake. Team Pipe are also responsible for the fantastic record of novices with eight landing the spoils in the same period, which is a fair return considering they have made up less than one-third of all runners. Even the nine-year-old Scorned (winner in 2004) was only having his fourth race over hurdles, which underlines the fact we are looking for an un-exposed type rather than a hurdling veteran.
There are a few that fit the bill but I’ll cut to the chase and name the winner, QASPAL, who was a novice at the start of this season and has won his last two starts in handicap company. Considering this is only his seventh career start, it’s safe to assume there is plenty of improvement to come and the manner of his victories suggest he’s still on the right side of the handicapper. After hacking up at Kempton on his handicap debut, he was quickly turned out under a penalty a week later at Sandown, where he cruised to an even more impressive victory. The handicapper has raised him 14lb for that success but that’s unlikely to stop him and if he is to have any chance of making the cut for next week’s Martin Pipe Hurdle, he will have to earn a penalty by winning here.
The slight concern is that he pulled quite hard last time but this race is always run at a strong gallop and that will help him settle. He’s also got Tony McCoy in the saddle and if he tries to pull the champ’s arms out there can only be only winner. McCoy’s minimum weight is around 10st 5lb so the fact he is sweating down to do 10st 3lb here is a tip in itself and just for good measure his trainer, Philip Hobbs, has been banging out the winners of late. The only downside is the price as he’s no bigger than 9/2 with Coral (7/2 in places). However, I think he’ll win and win well so I can’t see any point in trying to find something to beat him at a ‘value’ price.
Besides, there aren’t many unexposed horses in the field this year, with the exception of Caraval (14/1 bet365), Press The Button and Aaather, who is a general 8/1 shot and is almost certain to be trading much shorter in-running so well does he travel. Last time out at Cheltenham, he looked sure to collect before faltering up the hill on ground that was pretty testing. The drying conditions will be in his favour but he’s still a horse who I wouldn’t trust in a finish. Press The Button had Aather back in third when runner-up in a Listed race at Kempton last time and if pressed for an each-way bet, he'd be the one at 14/1, again with Coral.
The rest can be opposed for various reasons and will do well to live with Qaspal who, given a clear round of jumping and no bad luck in-running, should win.
Recommended Bet:
Qaspal 3pts @ 9/2 Coral